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題名:樣本代表性檢定與最小差異加權:以2001年臺灣選舉與民主化調查為例
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:黃紀 引用關係張佑宗 引用關係
作者(外文):Huang, CihChang, Yu-tzung
出版日期:2003
卷期:10:2
頁次:頁1-35
主題關鍵詞:樣本代表性檢定事後分層加權反覆多重加權最小差異加權Goodness-of-fit testsRakingPost-stratification weightingMinimum discrimination information weightingTEDSCross-entropy
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:55
  • 點閱點閱:165
樣本代表性檢定的目的,在發覺樣本是否被過度扭曲,而影響對母群特質的推估。大多數的民意調查計畫,包括電訪與面訪,如果發現樣本結構與母群不符,所採取的補救措施,不外乎「事後分層加權」或是「反覆多重加權」這兩種方式。然而,調查研究需要檢定的變數,通常超過一個以上,而「事後分層加權」所需之母群多變數聯合分佈值,往往為未知。因此,目前最常採用的是「反覆多重加權」的方式,但「反覆多重加權」實際執行時,最大的問題在於其檢定方式是透過卡方檢定,通常只要其檢定P值大於0.5,就認定樣本與母群一致,而未考慮一個最佳化的加權值。 本文旨在提出第三種事後加權的處理方式,也就是「最小差異加權」的方法,它能同時考慮數個變項,而找出最佳的加權值。我們以「2001年台灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS 2001)資料為例,分別進行「反覆多重加權」與「最小差異加權」,並與2000年戶口普查之母群資料比較,發現就性別、年齡、教育與地理區域四個變數的聯合分佈估計值,整體而言,最小差異加權的估計值,有將近七成比「反覆多重加權」的估計值更接近母群的聯合分佈值,應值得後續研究進一步探討。
Goodness-of-fit tests allow us to examine if the sample at hand is rep-resentative enough of the population to ensure accurate statistical infer-ences of parameters. When the sample fails the tests, survey researchers often appeal to reweighting as a remedy. Post-stratification and raking are perhaps the two most popular weighting methods. However, post-stratification requires the knowledge of multivariate joint distribution of the population when more than one post-stratifying variable is considered. Without such detailed information, raking comes as a rescue since it re-quires only the knowledge of marginal distributions of selected variables. Popular as it may be, raking takes no account of associations among post-stratifying variables. Furthermore, it relies heavily on Chi-squared tests and a pre-selected p-value (usually 0.5) as the stopping rule of iteration, an ad hoc rule justified only by convenience. This article proposes a third way of weighting, which we call it the minimum-discrimination-information (MDI) method. MDI approach finds optimal (in terms of minimum cross-entropy) relative weights by treating sample joint distribution as prior and known population marginal distributions as constraints. We first explain the rationale behind this pro-posed MDI method and then use TEDS 2001 survey data to compare the estimates of raking and MDI weights. We find that nearly 70 percent of the latter indeed replicate the Census 2000 population joint distribution better than the former. We thus conclude that MDI method is an ap-proach worth further theoretical investigation.
期刊論文
1.黃紀(20001200)。實用方法論芻議。政治學報,31,107-139。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.黃紀(20011200)。一致與分裂投票:方法論之探討。人文及社會科學集刊,13(5),541-574。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Korn, E. L.、Graubard, B. I.(1995)。Examples of differing weighted and unweighted estimates from a sample survey。The American Statistician,49(3),291-295。  new window
4.隋杜卿(19860300)。問卷調查中的樣本代表性研究:有關母群體資料選擇的說明。思與言,23(6),72-86。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Johnston, Ron、Pattie, Charles(2000)。Ecological Inference and Entropy-Maximizing: An Alternative Estimation Procedure for Split-Ticket Voting。Political Analysis,8(4),333-345。  new window
6.Cohen, S. B.(1997)。An Evaluation of Alternative PC-Based Software Packages Developed for the Analysis of Complex Survey Data。The American Statistician,51(3),285-292。  new window
7.Deming, W. E.、Stephan, F. F.(1940)。On a Least Squares Adjustment of a Sampled Frequency Table When the Expected Marginal Totals Are Known。The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,11(4),427-444。  new window
8.Deville, Jean-Claude、Särndal, Carl-Erik(1992)。Calibration Estimators in Survey Sampling。Journal of the American Statistical Association,87(418),376-382。  new window
9.Deville, J. C.、Sarndal, C. E.、Sautory, O.(1993)。Generalized Raking Procedures in Survey Sampling。Journal of the American Statistical Association,88(423),1013-1020。  new window
10.Holt, D.、Smith, T. M. F.(1979)。Post Stratification。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: General,142(1),33-46。  new window
11.Ireland, C. T.、Kullback, S.(1968)。Contingency Tables with Given Marginals。Biometrika,55(1),179-188。  new window
12.Jagers, P.(1986)。Post-Stratification against Bias in Sampling。International Statistical Review,54(2),159-167。  new window
13.Korn, E. L.、Graubard, B. I.(1995)。Analysis of Large Health Surveys: Accounting for the Sampling Design。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society,158(2),263-295。  new window
14.Little, J. A.、Wu, Mei Miau(1991)。Models for Contingency Tables with Known Margins When Target and Sampled Populations Differ。Journal of the American Statistical Association,86(413),87-95。  new window
15.Mosteller, F.(1968)。Association and Estimation in Contingency Tables。Journal of the American Statistical Association,321(63),1-28。  new window
16.Pelz, W.、Good, I. J.(1986)。Estimating Probabilities from Contingency Tables when the Marginal Probabilities are known, by Using Additive Objective Functions。The Statistician,35(1),45-50。  new window
17.Reilly, C.、Gelman, A.、Katz, J.(2001)。Poststratification Without Population Level Information on the Poststratifying Variable, With Application to Political Polling。Journal of the American Statistical Association,96(453),1-11。  new window
18.Robinson, S.、Cattaneo, A.、El-Said, M.(2001)。Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods。Economic Systems Research,13(1),47-64。  new window
19.Saito, S.(1992)。A Multistep Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure to Estimate Cohortwise Interregional Migration Tables where Only Inconsistent Marginals Are Known。Environment and Planning, A,24,1531-1547。  new window
20.Smith, T. M. F.(1991)。Post-Stratification。The Statistician,40(3),315-323。  new window
21.Stephan, F. F.(1942)。An Iterative Method of Adjusting Sample Frequency Tables When Expected Marginal Totals Are Known。The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,13,166-178。  new window
22.Thomsen, I.、Holmoy, A. M. K.(1998)。Combining Data from Surveys and Administrative Record Systems: The Norwegian Experience。International Statistical Review,66(2),201-221。  new window
23.Wang, Yuan Mei(2001)。Multicriterion Cross-entropy Minimization Approach to Positron Emission Tomographic Imaging。Journal of the Optical Society of America. A, Optics, Image Science and Vision,18(5),1027-1032。  new window
24.Zhang, Li Chun(2000)。Post-Stratification and Calibration-A Synthesis。The American Statistician,54(3),178-184。  new window
會議論文
1.洪永泰、許勝懋(2002)。TEDS抽樣執行過程與相關問題之探討。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃紀(2001)。民調資料加權與跨層次推論的關係。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃紀(2001)。樣本個體資料與母群集體數據之交互為用。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
4.Freeman, D. H., Jr.、Koch, G. G.(1976)。An Asymptotic Covariance Structure for Testing Hypotheses on Raked Contingency Tables from Complex Sample Surveys。沒有紀錄。330-335。  new window
5.Kish, L.(1990)。Weighting: Why, When and How?。沒有紀錄。121-130。  new window
圖書
1.Bishop, Yvonne M. M.、Fienberg, Stephen E.、Holland, Paul W.(1975)。Discrete Multivariate Analysis: Theory and Practice。Cambridge, Mass:The MIT Press。  new window
2.Golan, A.、Judge, G.、Miller, D.(1996)。Maximum entropy econometrics: Robust estimation with limited data。New York:Wiley。  new window
3.King, Gary(1997)。A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data。Princeton, New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
4.Levy, P. S.、Lemeshaw, S.(1999)。Sampling of populations: Methods and applications。New York:John Wiley。  new window
5.Fowler, Floyd J. Jr.(2002)。Survey Research Methods。Sage。  new window
6.Cochran, William G.(1977)。Sampling Techniques。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
7.Kish, Leslie(1965)。Survey Sampling。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
8.Agresti, Alan(2002)。Categorical Data Analysis。John Wiley & Sons。  new window
9.Brogan, D.(1998)。Software for Sample Survey Data, Misuse of Standard Packages。Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, Vol. 5。Chichester, UK。  new window
10.Kapur, J. N.、Kesavan, H. K.(1992)。Entropy Optimization Principles with Applications。Entropy Optimization Principles with Applications。New York, NY。  new window
11.Lehtonen, R.、Pahkinen, E. J.(1995)。Practical Methods for Design and Analysis of Complex Surveys。Practical Methods for Design and Analysis of Complex Surveys。Chichester。  new window
12.LINDO Systems Inc.(2001)。LINGO: the Modeling Language and Optimizer。LINGO: the Modeling Language and Optimizer。Chicago, IL。  new window
13.Oh, H. L.、Scheuren, F. J.(1983)。Weighting Adjustment for Unit Nonresponse。Incomplete Data In Sample Surveys, Vol 2: Theory and Bibliographies。New York, NY。  new window
14.Schrage, L.(2002)。Optimization Modeling with LINGO。Optimization Modeling with LINGO。Chicago, IL。  new window
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16.Stata Corporation(2001)。Stata 7: User's Guide。Stata 7: User's Guide。College Station, TX。  new window
其他
1.行政院主計處(2001)。中華民國八十九年臺閩地區戶口及住宅普查初步綜合報告,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.洪永泰(2001)。抽樣。民意調查。台北:五南。  延伸查詢new window
2.洪永泰(2000)。抽樣調查資料的加權處理。政治學的範圍與方法。臺北:五南圖書出版公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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