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題名：選舉事件與選民的投票抉擇：以臺灣2004年總統選舉為分析對象
書刊名：東吳政治學報
作者：張佑宗 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chang, Yu-tzung
出版日期：2006
卷期：22
頁次：頁121-159
主題關鍵詞：負面競選；319槍擊案；投票抉擇；2004年總統大選；Negative campaigning；Shocking event；Voter choice；The 2004 presidential election in Taiwan
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(15) 博士論文(1) 專書(3) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:15
  • 共同引用共同引用:169
  • 點閱點閱:184
本文主要分析台灣2004年總統選舉的過程中，先後出現四大負面競選事件與「319槍擊案」，這五大選舉事件對台灣總統選民投票抉擇影響的程度。在未控制其它因素的條件下，四大負面競選事件與「319槍擊案」，的確與選民投票的抉擇之間有顯著的關連。其中「吳淑珍買賣股票」事件，以及「陳由豪政治獻金」事件，都明顯與是否支持陳水扁有關。至於「連戰家產」來源，以及「國民黨黨產」問題，的確也與是否支持連戰有關。比較有趣的發現是，過去在輿論上認為「319槍擊案」對陳水扁選情比較有利的看法，並沒有在此次的調查資料中獲得支持。認為槍擊案對其投票抉擇有影響的選民，傾向投給「連宋配」，而認為槍擊案對其投票抉擇沒有影響的選民，傾向投給「陳呂配」。當然，由於調查程序是在總統選後二個月才正式展開，有可能因選民回憶的不正確性，或不願據實回答，甚至因受到對選舉結果而引發社會衝突事件的衝擊，受訪者已經改變原先對槍擊案的立場，最後影響到資料的正確性。
This article analyzes how the incidents surrounding the 2004 Taiwanese presidential campaign affected the choices of voters. Not controlling for other factors, campaign incidents have a significant relationship with voter choices. Among these incidents, those involving First Lady Wu Shu-jen allegedly buying and selling votes and ChenYu-hao’s political donations both had a marked influence on President Chen’s base of support. In addition, the issues of Lian Chan’s family wealth and the KMT’s financial and real estate assets both influenced the level of support for Lian Chan. One interesting finding was that although the public has seen the March 19th, 2004 assassination attempt on President Chen as beneficial to his electoral chances, the results of this survey do not support this view. Our data shows that those influenced by the assassination attempt were mostly supporters of the Lian-Soong ticket, while those not influenced were mostly supporters of the Chen-Lu ticket. Of course, it is possible that since the survey was initiated two months after the election there were voter-memory problems, and the survey could also have been affected by voters’ reluctance to provide accurate answers, or their having already changed their views of the election since its conclusion. Basing analysis on the selection bias model, this article finds that negative campaign incidents did not actually have a significant relationship with voter choices when controlling for other factors. In fact, voters’ understanding and evaluation of negative campaign incidents were influenced by many other intervening factors, especially party-identification, ethnic-identification, and national-identification. Those who identify themselves as Pan-Blues, Chinese, and supporters of unification saw themselves as influenced by negative incidents involving President Chen. At the same time, those who identify themselves as Pan-Greens, Taiwanese, and supporters of Taiwan independence saw themselves as influenced by negative incidents involving Lian Chan. This study confirms the traditional view in election studies that when candidates have equal access to the media, the original positions of opposite sides of the electorate are strengthened by the campaign process, rather than being influenced in such a way that they switch to the other side.
期刊論文
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12.黃秀端(20051200)。候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為。臺灣民主季刊，2(4)，1-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
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15.孫秀蕙(19961100)。選民的傳播形態對政治行為的影響：以1996年總統大選為例。選舉研究，3(2)，71-105。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.張卿卿(20020500)。競選媒體使用對選民競選議題知識與政治效能感的影響--以兩千年總統大選為例。選舉研究，9(1)，1-39。new window  延伸查詢new window
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20.彭芸(20000500)。2000年總統大選的媒介使用、選舉參與及投票對象。選舉研究，7(1)，21-52。new window  延伸查詢new window
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35.Lau, Richard R.(1985)。Two Explanation for Negativity Effects in Political Behavior。American Journal of Political Science，29(1)，119-138。  new window
36.Lau, Richard R.(1999)。The Effects of Negative Political Advertisement: A Meta-analytic Assessment。American Political Science Review，93(4)，851-875。  new window
37.Martin, Paul S.(2004)。Inside the Black Box of Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative Campaign Mobilize。Political Psychology，25(4)，545-562。  new window
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39.Scammell, Margaret(1998)。The Wisdom of the War Room: U. S. Campaigning and Americanization。Media, Culture & Society，20(2)，251-275。  new window
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41.Sigelman, Lee、Kugler, Mark(2003)。Why Is Research on the Effect of Negative Campaigning So Inconclusive? Understanding Citizens' Perceptions of Negativity。The Journal of Politics，65(1)，142-160。  new window
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會議論文
1.黃紀、Liao, Tsai-Hsing(2004)。To Respond or Not to Respond? A Multilevel Analysis of Item Nonresponse in the TEDS 2003 Survey。0。  new window
2.盛杏湲(2005)。民意調查中無反應的問題與處理：選樣偏誤模型的運用。0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Bartels, Larry M.(1988)。Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
2.Westlye, Mark C.(1991)。Senate Elections and Campaign Intensity。Baltimore, MD：Johns Hoplins University Press。  new window
3.Ansolabehere, Stephen D.、Iyengar, Shanto(1995)。Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate。New York, NY：The Free Press。  new window
4.Johnson-Cartee, K. S.、Copeland, G. A.(1991)。Negative Political Advertising: Coming of Age。Hillsdle, NJ：Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.。  new window
5.Popkin, Samuel L.(1991)。The Reasoning Voter: communication and persuasion in presidential campaigns。Chicago, IL。  new window
6.Zaller, John R.(1992)。The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion。Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.游清鑫(2001)。候選人與選民的互動：競選策略效果的探討--以2000年總統選舉之「興票案」為例。政治分析的層次。臺北：韋伯。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Iyengar, Shanto(1990)。Shortcuts to Political Knowledge: The Role of Selective Attention and Accessibility。Information and Democratic Processes。Urbana, IL：University of Illinois Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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