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題名:日本眾議院選舉政黨重複提名策略與效應:選區層次之分析
書刊名:政治科學論叢
作者:郭銘峰 引用關係黃紀 引用關係王鼎銘 引用關係
作者(外文):Kuo, Ming-fengHuang, ChiWang, Ding-ming
出版日期:2012
卷期:51
頁次:頁161-215
主題關鍵詞:日本眾議員選舉小選舉區比例代表並立制重複提名制度政黨提名策略獨立效果連動效果效應模型Japanese house electionMixed-member majoritarian electoral systemsMMMDual candidacyParty nomination strategyIndependent effectsContamination effectsTreatment-effects model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:460
  • 點閱點閱:96
近年來制度至關重要的論點,一直是學界關注各種政治行為形塑的重要變項,許多選舉經驗研究指出,包括政黨提名候選人策略與政黨間合作協調、國會議員立法行為與政策主張、候選人選區經營與競選活動、選民投票決策、甚或是政黨體系的變動等,均深受不同選制結構的影響。準此,探索政治場域上相關行為者的行為或動機時,不同選制架構內涵的影響效果,深值剖析。 本文主軸鎖定於日本自1994年推行四大政改法案後,改採小選舉區比例代表並立制架構下之候選人重複提名制度,對於日本政壇主要政黨(包括自民黨、民主黨、社民黨)提名參選策略與其實質成效的影響。有別既有文獻分析兩票連動效果經常未顧及變項間內因性與非隨機選組機制因素,導致參數值估算偏誤的因果推論問題,本文爰引James J. Heckman 建構之效應模型(treatment-effects model)進行準確校估。實證結果顯示:日本各主要政黨在歷屆眾議員選舉對單一選區候選人採重複提名參選的策略,其對政黨比例代表得票率的效應會因黨、因年而異;當中包括自民黨在2009年選舉、民主黨在2003年選舉,社民黨在2000年、2005年、2009年選舉,均以重複提名策略有效提升該黨的政黨比例代表得票率。此一分析結果,不僅適度佐證既有文獻對於日本政黨重複提名參選成效的預期,也吻合混合選制學理兩票連動效果的論點。
In recent years, scholars have paid a great deal of attention to the influence of institutions on political behavior. The claim that “institutions matter” in politics is widely accepted. Empirical studies show that electoral systems have a great impact on parties, candidates, and voters with respect to nomination, coordination strategies, legislative behavior, voting behavior, electoral campaigns, and the development of party systems. Accordingly, when we try to understand the behavior and motivations of political actors, it is necessary to examine institutional rules. After the electoral reforms of 1994, the single nontransferable vote (SNTV) was replaced with a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system. This paper seeks to evaluate the impact of this new electoral system based on district-level data. We are especially interested in the interaction effects (or the so-called “contamination effects”) on the two-vote structure resulting from dual candidacy strategies adopted by political parties. To avoid causal biased estimation and capture the contamination effect more precisely, we apply Heckman’s treatment-effects model to remove the endogeneity and self-selection problems. The result not only shows the dual candidacy strategies influence the interaction between two ballots, it also indicates the effect varies between different parties and different periods of time. More specifically, the dual candidacy strategy was especially beneficial to the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) PR vote in 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan’s PR vote in 2003, and the Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) PR vote in 2000, 2005, and 2009. In conclusion, this study supports the existing literature on dual candidacy and contamination effects in mixed-member electoral systems.
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會議論文
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學位論文
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圖書
1.田中善一郎(2005)。日本の総選挙:1946-2003。東京:東京大学出版会。  延伸查詢new window
2.Duverger, Maurice、North, Barbara、North, Robert、Brogan, D. W.(1954)。Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State。Wiley。  new window
3.Reed, Steven R.(2003)。Japanese Electoral Politics: Creating a New Party System。London:New York:Routledge Curzon。  new window
4.Riker, W.(1982)。Liberalism Against Populism: A Confrontation Between the Theory of Democracy and Theory of Social Choice。San Francisco, CA:W. H. Freeman。  new window
5.大嶽秀夫(1999)。日本政治の対立軸--93年以降の政界再編の中で。東京:中央公論新社。  延伸查詢new window
6.内田満(1983)。政党政治の論理。東京:三嶺書房。  延伸查詢new window
7.水崎節文、森裕城(2007)。総選挙の得票分析1958-2005。東京:木鐸社。  延伸查詢new window
8.平野浩(2007)。変容する日本の社會と投票行動。東京:木鐸社。  延伸查詢new window
9.宮川隆義(1996)。小選挙区比例代表並立制の魔術。東京:政治広報センター。  延伸查詢new window
10.選挙制度研究会(2005)。衆議院選挙要覽。東京:國政情報センタ一。  延伸查詢new window
11.Curtis, Gerald L.(1999)。The Logic of Japanese Politics: Leaders, Institutions, and the Limits of Change。New York:Columbia University Press。  new window
12.佐佐木毅(1999)。政治改革1800日の真實。東京:講談社。  延伸查詢new window
13.Scheiner, Ethan(2006)。Democracy Without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in One-Party Dominant State。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
14.大竹邦実(1996)。実務と研修のためのわかりやすい公職選挙法。東京:ぎょうせい株式会社。  延伸查詢new window
15.梅津實、森脇俊雅、坪郷實、後房雄、山田真裕(1998)。比較‧選挙政治:90年代における先進五カ国の選挙。京都:ミネルヴァ書房。  延伸查詢new window
16.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count。Cambridge。  new window
17.許介鱗(1991)。日本現代史。臺北:三民書局。  延伸查詢new window
18.大嶽秀夫(2006)。小泉純一郎:ポピュリズムの研究。東京:東洋経済新報社。  延伸查詢new window
19.Wada, Junichiro(1996)。The Japanese Election System: Three Analytical Perspectives。Routledge。  new window
20.LeDuc, Lawrence、Niemi, Richard G.、Norris, Pippa(1996)。Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective。Thousand Oaks, CA:SAGE。  new window
21.村松岐夫、伊藤光利、辻中豊(2001)。日本の政治。東京:有斐閣。  延伸查詢new window
22.Ferrara, Federico、Herron, Erik S.、Nishikawa, Misa(2005)。Mixed Electoral Systems: Contamination and Its Consequences。New York:Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
23.Norris, Pippa(2004)。Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior。New York, NY。  new window
24.福岡政行(2001)。日本の選挙。東京:早稲田大学出版部。  延伸查詢new window
25.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
26.Maddala, G. S.(1983)。Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometics。Cambridge University Press。  new window
27.謝復生(1992)。政黨比例代表制。臺北市:理論與政策雜誌社。new window  延伸查詢new window
28.許介鱗、楊鈞池(2006)。日本政治制度。臺北:三民。new window  延伸查詢new window
29.Lijphart, Arend(1984)。Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries。Yale University Press。  new window
30.Lijphart, Arend(1999)。Patterns of democracy: government forms and performance in thirty-six countries。Yale University Press。  new window
31.蔡增家(2005)。日本轉型:九○之後政治經濟體制的轉變。臺北:五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
32.王業立(2008)。比較選舉制度。五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
33.読売新聞社(1996)。大変革への序章:検証‧新制度下の96衆院選。東京:読売新聞社。  延伸查詢new window
34.久禮義一(2001)。現代選挙論:投票行動と問題点。奈良。  延伸查詢new window
35.水崎節文、森裕城(2006)。JED-M衆議院議員総選挙データ28~44回。東京。  延伸查詢new window
36.菅源太郎、東恭弘(2009)。衆議院全300小選挙区データブック。東京:第一書林。  延伸查詢new window
單篇論文
1.黃紀(2011)。受限依變量(II):選樣校正模型與因果效應模型。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.曹瑞泰。日本選舉制度改革與影響:現行小選區比例代表並立制施行之研究,http://www.japansearch.org.tw/scholar-94.aspm, 2007/04/02。  延伸查詢new window
2.總務省(2010)。選挙関連資料,http://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/index.html#chapter2, 2010/03/31。  new window
3.渡部昇一(20000630)。二大政党制文明政治方,東京。  延伸查詢new window
4.Iwai, Tomoaki(1999)。The Pressing Need for Electoral Reform,http://www.nira.or.jp/past/publ/review/99autumn/iwai.html, 2011/08/06。  new window
5.川人貞史(19961022)。二大政党制に近づけた新選挙制度。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.黃紀(2000)。實用方法論芻議。邁入二十一世紀的政治學。台北:中國政治學會。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.黃紀(2008)。單一選區兩票並立制下選民之投票抉擇:分析方法之探討。如何評估選制變遷:方法論的探討。臺北:五南。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳陸輝、周應龍(2008)。如何評估單一選區兩票制下候選人票與政黨票之間的聯動關係。如何評估選制變遷:方法論的探討。臺北:五南。  延伸查詢new window
4.黃紀(2008)。緒論:選舉制度的脈絡與效應。如何評估選制變遷:方法論的探討。台北:五南。  延伸查詢new window
5.Horowitz, Donald L.(2002)。Constitutional Design: Proposals versus Processes。The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy。Oxford University Press。  new window
6.Reed, Steven R.(2005)。Japan: Haltingly Towards a Two-party System。The Politics of Electoral Systems。New York, NY:Oxford:Oxford University Press:Oxford University Press。  new window
7.Shugart, Matthew S.(2005)。Comparative Electoral System Research: The Maturation of a Field and New Challenges Ahead。The Politics of Electoral Systems。Oxford:Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Shugart, Matthew Soberg、Wattenberg, Martin P.(2001)。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Definition and Typology。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?。Oxford University Press。  new window
9.Riker, William H.(1986)。Duverger's Law Revisited。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York:Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
10.Duverger, Maurice(1986)。Duverger's Law: Forty Years Later。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York:Agathon Press。  new window
11.郭承天(2000)。新制度論與政治經濟學。邁入二十一世紀的政治學。台北:中國政治學會。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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