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題名：選舉課責：拉丁美洲國家政府經濟施政表現與選舉得票相關性之研究
書刊名：臺灣政治學刊
作者：張傳賢 引用關係／張佑宗 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chang, Alex C.／Chang, Yu-tzung
出版日期：2006
卷期：10:2
頁次：頁101-147
主題關鍵詞：選舉課責；拉丁美洲；政治脈絡；得票率；Electoral accountability；Latin America；Political contexts；Vote share
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(11) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:109
  • 點閱點閱:88
選舉課責意指人民視執政者的施政表現，利用選票獎勵與懲戒執政者。專注於選舉課責在拉丁美洲發展狀況的學者，主要著眼於經濟發展與執政者得票率兩者間變化的關聯性。然而，目前各項研究的結果出現南轅北轍，難有交集的地方。其原因不外乎是研究層面的誤置、資料結構的不完整、研究分析方法的誤差，以及忽視政治結構對於選舉課責機制的影響。為解決這些問題爭議，本文從資料的完整性著手，蒐集拉丁美洲各國自民主化之後的選舉資料與經濟發展指標，並且利用混合變項(mixed effects model)將拉丁美洲各國政治結構(political contexts)上的差異對於經濟發展與執政者得票率的影響納入分析變項中。研究結果發現選舉課責機制的確存在拉丁美洲各國民主化過程中。分析中同時發現政治結構亦對於選舉課責機制具有影響力。當執政者於國會中擁有絕大多數席位時，其對於政策執行的政治責任亦愈高。最後，本文同時發現拉丁美洲總統制政府的得票率較內閣制政府的得票率更容易受到經濟政策結果的影響。
Electoral accountability refers to the mechanism that people are able to use their votes to award or punish incumbent governments based on their policy outcomes and political performance. Conventional studies focusing on electoral accountability in Latin America mainly address the relations between governments' economic performance and incumbents' vote share. However, their conclusions are diverse. We argue that this problem might be due to mistaking levels of analyses, incomplete datasets, mistakes in model selection, and ignoring the influence from political contexts. To deal with these problems, in this paper, we collect electoral results and economic indicators from 28 Latin American democracies. Then, by applying the mixed effects model, we introduce political contexts into my empirical analysis and control them as fixed effects. The statistical results prove that electoral accountability does exist in Latin American democracies. The results also show that political contexts influence electoral accountability. Whenever an incumbent government owns a supermajority in a legislature, it will be highly accountable for its electorate. Finally, this paper also finds that in contrast to their counterparts in parliamentary democracies, governments in presidential democracies are more accountable to their voters for their economic performance.
期刊論文
1.Hibbing, John R.、John R. Alford(1981)。The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who is Held Responsible。American Journal of Political Science，25(3)，423-439。  new window
2.Kiewiet, D. Roderick、Rivers, Douglas(1984)。A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting。Political Behavior，6(4)，369-393。  new window
3.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.(1988)。Economics and the American Voter: Past, Present, Future。Political Behavior，10(1)，5-21。  new window
4.Powell, G. Bingham Jr.、Whitten, Guy D.(1993)。A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context。American Journal of Political Science，37(2)，391-414。  new window
5.Fiorina, Morris P.(1978)。Economic Retrospective Voting in American Elections: Micro-Analysis。American Journal of Political Science，22(2)，426-443。  new window
6.Norpoth, Helmut(2001)。Divided Government and Economic Voting。Journal of Politics，63(2)，414-435。  new window
7.Pacek, Alexander、Radcliff, Benjamin(1995)。The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World。American Journal of Political Science，39(3)，745-759。  new window
8.Finkel, Steven E.、Muller, Edward N.、Seligson, Mitchell A.(1989)。Economic Crisis, Incumbent Performance, and Regime Support: A Comparison of Longitudinal Data From West Germany and Costa Rica。British Journal of Political Science，19(3)，329-351。  new window
9.Markus, Gregory B.(1988)。The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis。American Journal of Political Science，32，137-154。  new window
10.Remmer, Karen L.(1991)。The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s。American Political Science Review，85(3)，777-800。  new window
11.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Nadeau, Richard(2001)。National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections。Journal of Politics，63(1)，159-181。  new window
12.Cuzan, Alfred G.、Charles M. Bundrick(1997)。Presidential Popularity in Central America: Parallels with the United States。Political Research Quarterly，50(4)，833-849。  new window
13.王業立(19950500)。單記非讓渡投票制的政治影響：我國民意代表選舉制度的探討。選舉研究，2(1)，147-167。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Roberts, Kenneth M.、Wibbels, Erik(1999)。Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations。American Political Science Review，93(3)，575-590。  new window
15.Altman, David、Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal(2002)。Assessing the Quality of Democracy: Freedom, Competitiveness and Participation in Eighteen Latin American Countries。Democratization，9(2)，85-100。  new window
16.Baker, Bruce(1999)。The Quality of African Democracy: Why and How It Should Be Measured。Journal of Contemporary African Studies，17(2)，273-286。  new window
17.Beetham, David(2004)。Towards a Universal Framework for Democracy Assessment。Democratization，11(2)，1-17。  new window
18.Blejer, Mario I.(1981)。Strike Activity and Wage Determination under Rapid Inflation: The Chilean Case。Industrial and Labor Relations Review，34(3)，356-364。  new window
19.Feldman, Stanley(1984)。Economic Self-interest and the Vote: Evidence and Meaning。Political Behavior，6(3)，229-251。  new window
20.Fenmore, Barton、Volgy, Thomas J.(1978)。Short Term Economic Change and Political Instability in Latin America。The Western Political Quarterly，31(4)，548-564。  new window
21.Fiorina, Morris P.(1983)。Who Is Held Responsible? Further Evidence on the Hibbing-alford Thesis。American Journal of Political Science，27(1)，158-164。  new window
22.Foweraker, Joe、Krznaric, Roman(2001)。How to Construct a Database of Liberal Democratic Performance。Democratization，8(3)，1-25。  new window
23.Jacoby, William G.(1991)。Ideological Identification and Issue Attitudes。American Journal of Political Science，35(1)，178-205。  new window
24.Johnson, Gregg B.、Crisp, Brian F.(2003)。Mandates, Powers and Policies。American Journal of Political Science，47(1)，128-142。  new window
25.King, Gary、Murray, Christopher、Salomon, Joshua A.、Tandon, Ajay(2004)。Enhancing the Validity and Cross-cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research。American Political Science Review，98(1)，191-207。  new window
26.Kramer, Gerald H.(1983)。The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate-versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting。American Political Science Review，77(1)，92-111。  new window
27.Morlino, Leonardo(2004)。What Is Good Democracy?。Democratization，11(5)，10-32。  new window
28.Roberts, Andrew(2005)。The Quality of Democracy。Comparative Politics，37(3)，357-376。  new window
29.Schady, Norbert R.(2000)。The Political Economy of Expenditures by the Peruvian Social Fund (FONCODES), 1991-95。American Political Science Review，94(2)，289-304。  new window
30.Schmidt, Steffen W.(1974)。Bureaucrats as Modernizing Brokers? Clientelism in Colombia。Comparative Politics，6(3)，425-450。  new window
31.Tsebelis, George(1995)。Decision Making in Political Systems: Veto Player in Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, Multicameralism and Multipartyism。British Journal of Political Science，25(3)，289-325。  new window
研究報告
1.Maloney, William F.、Nunez, Jairo(2001)。Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Latin America。0。  new window
圖書
1.O’Donnell, Guillermo(1999)。Horizontal Accountability in New Democracy。The Self-Restraining State: Power and Accountability in New Democracies。Boulder：Lynne Rienner。  new window
2.Lijphart, Arend(1998)。Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries。New Haven：Yale University Press。  new window
3.Kaufmann, Daniel、Kraay, Aart、Mastruzzi, Massimo(2005)。Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004.。Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004.。Washington, DC：World Bank。  new window
4.Skrondal, Anders、Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia(2004)。Generalized Latent Variable Modeling: Multilevel, Longitudinal, and Structural Equation Models。Boca Raton, FL：Chapman & Hall/ CRC。  new window
5.Pharr, Susan J.、Putnam, Robert D.(2000)。Disaffected Democracies: What's Troubling the Trilateral Democracies?。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
6.Dalton, Russell J.(2004)。Democratic challenges, democratic choices: the erosion of political support in advanced industrial democracies。Oxford University Press。  new window
7.Archer, Ronald(1995)。Party Strength and Weakness in Colombia Besieged Democracy。Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America。Stanford, CA。  new window
8.Cullell, Jorge Vargas(2004)。Democracy and the Quality of Democracy: Empirical Findings and Methodological and Theoretical Drawn from the Citizen Audit of the Quality of Democracy in Costa Rica。The Quality of Democracy。Notre Dame。  new window
9.Hagopian, Frances(2005)。Government Performance, Political Representation, and Public Perceptions of Contemporary Democracy in Latin America。The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America: Advances and Setbacks。Cambridge, MA。  new window
10.Mainwaring, Scott、Welna, Christoper(2003)。Democratic Accountability in Latin America。Oxford University Press。  new window
11.Moreno, Erika、Crisp, Brian F.、Shugart, Mattew S.(2003)。The Accountability Deficit in Latin America。Democratic Accountability in Latin America。New York, NY。  new window
12.Nohlen, Dieter(1993)。Enciclopedia Electoral Latinoamericana y del Caribe。Enciclopedia Electoral Latinoamericana y del Caribe。San Jose。  new window
13.Stokes, Susan C.(2001)。Mandates and Democracy Comparative Politics。Mandates and Democracy Comparative Politics。Cambridge, MA。  new window
14.Tsebelis, George(2002)。Veto Player: How Political Institutions Work。Veto Player: How Political Institutions Work。Princeton, NJ。  new window
圖書論文
1.O'Donnell, Guillermo(2003)。Horizontal Accountability: The Legal Institutionalization of Mistrust。Democratic Accountability in Latin America。Oxford University Press。  new window
2.Linz, Juan J.(1994)。Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Differnce?。The Failure of Presidential Democracy: Comparative Perspective。Baltimore：John Hopkins University Press。  new window
3.Norris, Pippa(1999)。Introduction: The Growth of Critical Citizens?。Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government。Oxford University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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