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題名：Split-Voting in Taiwan's Concurrent Election and Referendum: An Exploratory Test of Social Context
書刊名：Issues & Studies
作者：黃信豪 引用關係
作者(外文)：Huang, Hsin-hao
出版日期：2010
卷期：46:2
頁次：頁87-126
主題關鍵詞：Referendum turnout；Split voting；Social context；Taiwan；Ecological inference
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:541
  • 點閱點閱:54
Exploring the issue of referendum voting has become an important aid to understanding the development of democracy in Taiwan. Three referendums on six issues have been held since 2004, and each of them has been held in conjunction with a nationwide election. This paper uses the approach of straight/split-ticket voting to explore Taiwan’s referendum voting behavior. Through a case study of the 2008 presidential election,this paper draws ecological inferences from aggregate data and examines the effects of different social contexts on split voting by KMT and DPP voters. By using Wakefield’s hierarchical method, it is shown that whether Taiwanese voters picked up referendum ballots in 2008 depended mostly on which party they voted for in the presidential election. This finding indicates that partisanship remained influential in referendum voting of Taiwan. However, social context also matters from the viewpoint of information transmission. This paper examines split-voting behavior by region and addresses different contextual measurements of the political support,economic development, and ethnic cohesion as exploratory factors. By using aggregate data to probe local opinion, this paper provides an alternative approach to explaining voting behavior by regional difference.
期刊論文
1.Lawrence, LeDuc(2002)。Opinion Change and Voting Behavior in Referendums。European Journal of Political Research，41(6)，711-732。  new window
2.Burden, B.、Kimball, D. C.(1998)。A New Approach to the Study of Ticket-Splitting。American Political Science Review，92(3)，533-544。  new window
3.Tsai, Chia-hung、Cheng, Su-feng、Huang, Hsin-hao(2005)。Do Campaigns Matter? The Effect of the Campaign in the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election。Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies，20，115-135。  new window
4.Robinson, William S.(1950)。Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals。American Sociological Review，15(3)，351-357。  new window
5.李佩珊、徐永明(20020600)。Southern Politics? Regional Trajectories of Party Development in Taiwan。Issues & Studies，38(2)，61-84。new window  new window
6.黃紀(20011200)。一致與分裂投票：方法論之探討。人文及社會科學集刊，13(5)，541-574。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.黃偉峰(20040900)。從選票區位結構試探影響2004年「和平公投」之相關因素。臺灣民主，1(3)，73-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.蔡佳泓(20070600)。民主深化或政黨競爭？初探臺灣2004年公民投票參與。臺灣政治學刊，11(1)，109-145。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.吳重禮、譚寅寅、李世宏(20030600)。賦權理論與選民投票行為：以2001年縣市長與第五屆立法委員選舉為例。臺灣政治學刊，7(1)，91-156。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.黃紀(20040900)。Explaining Referendum Voting Choices in Taiwan。Issues & Studies，40(3/4)，316-333。new window  new window
11.耿曙、陳陸輝(20031100)。兩岸經貿互動與臺灣政治版圖：南北區塊差異的推手？。問題與研究，42(6)，1-27。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.王德育、鄭夙芬、陳陸輝(20090300)。Deep-Green Supporters and Political Tolrance in Taiwan: An Analysis of Kennedy's Hypothesis。Issues & Studies，45(1)，1-30。new window  new window
13.King, Gary、Rosen, Ori、Tanner, Martin A.(1999)。Binomial-Beta Hierarchical Models for Ecological Inference。Sociological Methods & Research，28(1)，61-90。  new window
14.LeDuc, Lawrence、Pammett, Jon H.(1995)。Referendum Voting: Attitudes and Behaviour in the 1992 Constitutional Referendum。Canadian Journal of Political Science，28(1)，3-33。  new window
15.Baden, Christian、de Vreese, Claes H.(20080800)。Making Sense: A Reconstruction of People's Understandings of the European Constitutional Referendum in the Netherlands。Communications，33(2)，117-145。  new window
16.黃信豪(20071200)。區位推論的統計模型：發展、比較與評估。人文及社會科學集刊，19(4)，529-562。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Huckfeldt, Robert、Sprague, John(1987)。Networks in Context: The Social Flow of Political Information。American Political Science Review，81(4)，1197-1216。  new window
18.Hug, Simon(20040700)。Occurrence and Policy Consequences of Referendums: A Theoretic Model and Empirical Evidence。Journal of Theoretical Politics，16(3)，321-356。  new window
19.Imai, Kosuke、Lu, Ying、Strauss, Aaron(20070800)。Bayesian and Likelihood Inference for Models for 2x2 Ecological Tables: An Incomplete Data Approach。Political Analysis，16，41-69。  new window
20.Wakefield, Jon(20040900)。Ecological Inference for 2x2 tables。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A，67(3)，385-445。  new window
研究報告
1.王甫昌(2000)。A Survey of the Social Foundation of Ethnic Relations in Taiwan。  new window
圖書
1.King, Gary(1997)。A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data。Princeton, New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
2.Black, Cyril E.、Ranney, Austin(1976)。Comparative Modernization。New York：The Free Press。  new window
3.Lipset, Seymour Martin(1981)。Political Man--The Social Bases of Politics。Baltimore, Maryland：The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
4.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
5.Zaller, John R.(1992)。The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion。Cambridge University Press。  new window
6.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
7.Maslow, Abraham H.(1954)。Motivation and Personality。Harper & Row。  new window
8.王甫昌(20030000)。當代臺灣社會的族群想像。臺北市：群學出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Raudenbush, Stephen W.、Bryk, Anthony S.(2002)。Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods。Thousand Oaks, CA：Sage Press。  new window
10.Kau, Michael Y. M.(2005)。Direct Democracy Practices in Taiwan。Taipei：Taiwan Foundation for Democracy.。  new window
11.LeDuc, Lawrence(2003)。The Politics of Direct Democracy: Referendums in Global Perspective。Toronto：Broadview Press。  new window
其他
1.Imai, Kosuke，Gary, King，Lau, Olivia(2006)。Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software，http://gking.harvard.edu/zelig/， 2006/12/24。  new window
2.Loa, Iok-sin ; Chao, Vincent Y.。ECFA referendum proposal rejected，http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2010/06/04/2003474657， 2010/06/04。  new window
3.Shih, Hsiu-chuan，Ko, Shu-ling(20070719)。KMT Sues Committee of Appeal，http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2007/07/19/2003370233， 2007/07/19。  new window
4.Shih, Hsiu-chuan，Ko, Shu-ling(20071129)。Two-step Voting against the Law: Chang 2007/11/29。  new window
圖書論文
1.LeDuc, Lawrence(2002)。Referendums and Elections: How Do Campaigns Differ。Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums。London：Routledge。  new window
2.Bulter, David、Ranney, Austin(1994)。Practice。Referendums around the World: The Growing Use of Direct Democracy。Washington, D.C.：The AEI Press。  new window
3.de Vreese, Claes H.(2007)。Context Elites, Media and public Opinion in referendums: When Campaigns Really Matter。The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
4.徐永明、蔡佳泓、黃庭(2005)。Referendum: A New Way of Identifying National Identity。Direct Democracy Practices in Taiwan。Taipei：Taiwan Foundation for Democracy。  new window
5.LeDuc, Lawrence(2007)。Opinion Formation and Change in Referendum Campaigns。In The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
6.Mattos, Rogerio S.、Veiga, Alvaro(2004)。A Structured Comparison of Goodman Regression, the Truncated Normal, and the Binomial-Beta Hierarchical Methods for Ecological Inference。In Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.Miller, M. L.(1995)。Quantitative Methods。Theory and Methods in Political Science。London：Macmillan Press。  new window
8.Tonsgaard, Ole(1992)。A theoretic Model of Referendum Behaviour。From Voters to Participants。Institute of Political Science, University of Aarhus.。  new window
9.Welzel, Christian、Inglehart, Ronald(2006)。The Human Development Model of Democracy: East Asia in Perspective。Citizens, Democracy, and Markets around the Pacific Rim: Congruence Theory and Political Culture。New York：Oxford University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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