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題名:民主深化或政黨競爭?初探臺灣2004年公民投票參與
書刊名:臺灣政治學刊
作者:蔡佳泓
作者(外文):Tsai, Chia-hung
出版日期:2007
卷期:11:1
頁次:頁109-145
主題關鍵詞:路徑分析模型公民投票民主價值政治功效感政治信任感政黨認同Path analysis modelReferendumDemocratic valuePolitical efficacyPolitical trustParty identification
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(7) 博士論文(2) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:758
  • 點閱點閱:31
過去在解釋投票參與時,經常將投不投票視為利益的取捨以及責任的驅使,亦即假設選民參與投票是為了極大化其利益。而在2004年舉行的全國性公民投票,雖然是直接民主的實踐,卻籠罩在強烈的政黨之爭下,使得領不領公民票成為選舉的焦點之一。針對影響公民投票領票的因素,有必要從心理層面的角度加以探討。由於過去對於公民投票參與的經驗研究並不多見,而以往的文獻發現,台灣民眾的政黨認同、國家認同與民主價值之間的相互作用甚深。因此,我們嘗試透過路徑分析模型分析民眾對公民投票此一程序的認知、民主價值、政治功效感、政治信任感、政黨認同、統獨立場等因素對於公民投票行為的影響。我們初步的發現是,對於公民投票本身的評估具有相當明顯的影響,但是民主價值對於公民投票的影響力並不如預期明顯。認為自己可以影響政治的政治效能感以及對於政治體系的信任感亦不具有顯著影響,而政黨認同及統獨立場對於以上的態度及投票均具有高度的影響力。雖然公民投票本身的評估具有影響,但是此次的公民投票仍然具有相當的政黨色彩,因此民主深化並未完全實現。
Previous studies on voting participation used to model individuals' utilities and duties as the forces driving their participation. It is assumed that people maximize their utilities when they turn out. In the 2004 referendum, there were many controversies as to how to exercise direct democracy as well as fierce partisan battles. It is thus necessary to analyze the determinants of voting in the referendum from the perspective of social psychology. There are few empirical studies on the 2004 referendum. Because data on party identification, a person's position on the unification/independence issue, and democratic values were collected from among the general public, we used a path analysis model to isolate the factors influencing participation in the referendum. Our preliminary findings were that the evaluation of the referendum was influential, and that the democratic beliefs were not as effective as expected. Neither were the political efficacy or political trust as effective as expected. By contrast, party identification and a person's position on the unification/independence issue were found to have a great impact on turnout in the referendum. The empirical evidence indicates that the referendum was marred by political controversies, and thus the ideal of direct democracy was not achieved.
期刊論文
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5.蔡佳泓、鄭夙芬、黃信豪、鄭夙芬(2005)。Do Campaigns Matter? the Effect of the Campaign in the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election。Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies,20,115-135。  new window
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15.Cain, Bruce E.(1978)。Strategic Voting in Britain。American Journal of Political Science,22,639-655。  new window
16.Shaffer, Stephen D.(1981)。A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960-1976。American Journal of Political Science,25(1),68-95。  new window
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20.吳俊德、陳永福(20051200)。投票與不投票的抉擇--2004年總統大選與公民投票的探索性研究。臺灣民主季刊,2(4),67-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.Abramson, Paul R.、Aldrich, John H.(1982)。The Decline of Electoral Participation in America。American Political Science Review,76(3),502-521。  new window
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24.蔡佳泓(20040600)。試析公民投票對政治與政黨體系之影響。臺灣民主季刊,1(2),27-41。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.吳乃德(19960700)。自由主義和族群認同:搜尋臺灣民族主義的意識形態基礎。臺灣政治學刊,1,5-39。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.王甫昌(19960700)。臺灣反對運動的共識動員:一九七九至一九八九年兩次挑戰高峰的比較。臺灣政治學刊,1,129-209。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.陳陸輝(20031200)。政治信任、施政表現與民眾對臺灣民主的展望。臺灣政治學刊,7(2),149-188。new window  延伸查詢new window
28.盛治仁(20030500)。臺灣民眾民主價值及政治信任感研究--政黨輪替前後的比較。選舉研究,10(1),115-169。new window  延伸查詢new window
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31.王振寰(19890300)。臺灣的政治轉型與反對運動。臺灣社會研究季刊,2(1),71-116。new window  延伸查詢new window
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34.Nadeau, R.、Martin, P.、Blais, A.(1999)。Attitude Towards Risk-taking and Individual Choice in the Quebec Referendum on Sovereignty。British Journal of Political Science,29,523-539。  new window
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會議論文
1.胡佛、張佑宗、歐陽晟(1994)。臺灣價值分歧的結構及對統獨立場與投票選擇的影響。0。  延伸查詢new window
2.蔡佳泓、徐永明、黃希庭(2005)。Polarizing the Political Universe: A Case Study of Taiwan。0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Tocqueville, A.、Lawrence, George、Mayer, J.P.(1969)。Democracy in America。Garden City, NY:Doubleday & Company。  new window
2.Setålå, M.(1999)。Referendums and Democratic Government. Normative Theory and the Analysis of Institutions。Hampshire/ London, UK:Macmillan Press Ltd.。  new window
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4.Blais, André(2000)。To Vote or Not to Vote: The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory。University of Pittsburgh Press。  new window
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7.胡佛(1998)。政治學的科學探究(二):政治文化與政治生活。臺北市:三民書局。  延伸查詢new window
8.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation & Opposition。New Haven, CT。  new window
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圖書論文
1.徐火炎(1998)。臺灣的選舉與社會分歧結構--政黨競爭與民主化。兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷:哈佛大學東西方學者的對話。臺北:月旦出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳明通、林繼文(1998)。台灣地方選舉的起源與國家社會關係轉變。兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷。台北:月旦出版社。  延伸查詢new window
3.林佳龍(1998)。臺灣地方選舉與國民黨政權的市場化:從威權鞏固到民主轉型(1946-94)。兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷:哈佛大學東西方學者的對話。臺北市:月旦。  延伸查詢new window
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