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題名:經濟評估與投票抉擇:以2001年立委選舉為例
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:王柏燿
作者(外文):Wang, Bo-yauo
出版日期:2004
卷期:11:1
頁次:頁171-195
主題關鍵詞:經濟投票異質性歸因理論政黨認同政治信任感Economic votingHeterogeneityAttribution theoryParty identificationPolitical trust
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(19) 博士論文(1) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:19
  • 共同引用共同引用:154
  • 點閱點閱:122
本研究主要目的在探討選民針對經濟情況的評估是否會影響到投票抉擇呢?也就是在台灣選舉中,隨著經濟環境的惡化,選民是否具備經濟投票的行為呢?當選民認為經濟不好時,是否為用選票來懲罰執政黨?透過以下幾方面,本文將探討經濟情況的評估與投票抉擇的關係、歸因理論與經濟投票異質性。研究發現為在2001年的立委選舉調查資料中,選民針對個人與國家經濟情況的評估,不論是回顧或前瞻的經濟評估,皆與投票抉擇之間存有顯著的差異。然而在投票模型中,個人與國家的經濟評估並不是主要影響投票抉擇的因素。在台灣選民的投票考量上,政黨認同、統獨立場仍是主要影響選民投票決定的主要變數。因此利用歸因理論與樣本篩選,本文發現一群具有經濟投票特質的選民,而他們的投票抉擇則是受到針對國家經濟情況所做的評估影響。不過,在經濟投票異質性的檢驗上,政治信任感與選民針對國家經濟情況之評估,兩者間並不存有交互作用。換言之,經濟評估對投票抉擇的影響並不受政治信任感的影響。由以上的討論,可以得知台灣選民經濟投票行為存有異質性,但是是何種變數影響所致,仍有待後續研究探討之。
The purpose of this article is to discuss whether the evaluation of eco-nomic condition in electorate influences the voting choice. The election in Taiwan, with the bad economic condition, do the economic voting exist? When the electorate evaluate that the economic performance is bad, will they punish the ruling party by their votes? We will discuss the relation between the evaluation of economic conditions and voting choices, at-tributive theory and the heterogeneity of economic voting. From the dis-covery of this article, there is obvious difference between personal and na-tional evaluation of economic conditions and voting choices. In the multi-nomial voting model, the economic evaluation that affects the voting choices is not the main factor. Therefore, by using attributive theory and sample choosing, I find some electorate who has the economic voting character. But in the testing of the heterogeneity of economic voting, po-litical trust and the national economic evaluation don’t exist the interact-tion. The effect of economic evaluation to the voting decision doesn’t be affected by political trust. We can know that there is heterogeneity in the economic voting of Taiwan electorate. However, what kind of variable causes the effect is the main continuous issue.
期刊論文
1.Carmines, E. G.、Stimson, J. A.(1980)。The Two Faces of Issue Voting。American Political Science Review,74(1),78-91。  new window
2.Gomez, Brad T.、Wilson, J. Matthew(2001)。Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution。American Journal of Political Science,45(4),899-914。  new window
3.Kinder, Donald R.、Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1981)。Sociotropic Politics: The American Case。British Journal of Political Science,11,129-161。  new window
4.盛杏湲(19980500)。選民的投票決定與選舉預測。選舉研究,5(1),37-75。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.黃秀端(19940300)。經濟情況與選民投票抉擇。東吳政治學報,3,97-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.徐火炎(19911100)。政黨認同與投票抉擇:臺灣地區選民的政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析。人文及社會科學集刊,4(1),1-57。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.陳陸輝(19980500)。Presidential Voting of 1996 in Taiwan: An Analysis。選舉研究,5(1),139-160。new window  new window
8.黃德福(19941100)。政黨競爭與政治民主化:臺灣地區政黨體系的新挑戰。選舉研究,1(2),199-220。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.謝復生(20001200)。理性抉擇理論的回顧與前瞻。政治學報,31,141-153。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Duch, R. M.、Palmer, H. D.、Anderson, C. J.(2000)。Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions。American Journal of Political Science,44(4),635-652。  new window
11.Conover, P. J.、Feldman, S.(1986)。Emotional Reactions to the Economy: I'm Mad as Hell and I'm not Going to Take It Anymore。American Journal of Political Science,30(1),50-78。  new window
12.Conover, P. J.、Feldman, S.、Knight, K.(1987)。The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts。American Journal of Political Science,31(3),559-583。  new window
13.Duch, Raymond M.(2001)。A Development Model of Heterogeneous Economic Voting in New Democracies。American Political Science Review,95(4),895-910。  new window
14.Holbrook, T.、Garand, J. C.(1996)。Homo Economus? Economic Information and Economic Voting。Political Research Quarterly,49(June),351-375。  new window
15.MacKuen, M. B.、Erikson, R. S.、Stimson, J. A.(1992)。Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U. S. Economy。American Political Science Review,86(3),597-611。  new window
16.Welch, Susan、Hibbing, John(1992)。Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections。The Journal of Politics,54(1),197-213。  new window
會議論文
1.盛杏湲(2001)。統獨議題與臺灣選民的投票行為 : 一九九0年代的分析。臺北:國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳義彥、陳陸輝(2002)。政治功效意識、政治信任感以及臺灣選民的民主價值。2001年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討會。臺北:國立政治大學選舉研究中心。1-30。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃秀端(1996)。候選人因素與總統選舉。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.劉義周(1996)。世代、統獨立場與投票抉擇。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.陳義彥(1995)。選舉行為與臺灣地區的政治民主化-從八十三年省市長選舉探討。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.林慧萍(1995)。探討臺灣選民的議題取向投票:民國八十二年縣市長選舉分析(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Liao, Tim Futing(1994)。Interpreting Probability Models: Logit, Probit, and Other Generalized Linear Models。Thousand Oaks, Calif:Sage Publication。  new window
2.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.(1988)。Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies。Ann Arbor, MI:University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
4.Alt, James E.、Chrystal, K. Alec(1983)。Political Economics。University of California press。  new window
5.Aldrich, John H.、Nelson, Forrest D.(1984)。Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models。Sage Publications。  new window
6.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
7.Wolfinger, Raymond E.、Rosenstone, Steven J.(1980)。Who Votes?。New Haven, Connecticut:Yale University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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