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題名：總統得票率、地方補助款與行程安排之相關性探討
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：李俊達 引用關係
作者(外文)：Lee, Chun-ta
出版日期：2010
卷期：17:2
頁次：頁71-102
主題關鍵詞：分配政治；Tobit迴歸；總統府公報；總統行程；得票率；Distributive politics；Tobit regression；Presidential Office Gazette；Presidential schedule；Vote rate
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:106
  • 點閱點閱:118
本文摘要 在時間有限的前提下，正副總統如何安排地方的參訪行程是一門有趣的課題，也是分配政治研究中重要的一環。本文藉由實證研究的方式，以台灣正副總統到各鄉鎮（市）的訪視行程作為依變項，透過Tobit迴歸分析分配政治的兩個基本模型─「游移團體」模型與「支持團體」模型。研究結果發現，由於台灣的憲政體制及政治現況，陳水扁與呂秀蓮在任職第十屆正副總統之際，基於尋求連任的目標以及在理念上追求「和解共生」、「全民政府」，因此地方參訪行程的安排呈現出「游移團體較多、支持團體與反對團體較少」的「游移團體」模型。連任後，有鑒於藍綠情結難解、政黨鴻溝無從跨越，陳水扁與呂秀蓮的行程安排改為「支持團體」模型，轉而偏重「得票率」及「地方補助款」的因素，鎖定在屬於「支持團體」的鄉鎮（市），同時也會安排較多的行程到曾經在首任「受惠」的鄉鎮（市）。
Abstract It’s an interesting subject that the visiting schedule of the president and vice-president is based on the premise of limited time, which might indicate an important research that related to the distributive politics. With the calculation of the township trips of the highest executive leaders in Taiwan, the number would be taken as a dependent variable, so as to analyze the model of schedule arrangements and to contrast the model to two basic models, “swing voters model” and “support groups model”. According to the results of Tobit regression analysis, the consideration for visiting schedule of former president Chen and vice-president Lu is basically decided by the chances to seek reelection. Being the president and vice-president for the first term and ready to be the candidates for the second term, Chen and Lu arranged more local trips to townships whose political tendency are categorized as swing groups in the previous election. Successfully winning the second term of presidency, however, Chen and Lu’s visiting schedule shifts to support model; they turned to townships whose vote rates were higher than others in the reelection and townships where received more benefit during their first term
期刊論文
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3.羅清俊、陳文學(20091100)。影響原住民政策利益分配的因素：族群代表或選舉競爭？。選舉研究，16(2)，167-207。new window  延伸查詢new window
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15.Dixit, Avinash、Londregan, John(1996)。The Determinants of Success of Special Interests in Redistributive Politics。Journal of Politics，58(4)，1132-1155。  new window
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18.羅清俊、張皖萍(20080300)。立法委員分配政治行為分析：選區企業與立法委員企業背景的影響。政治科學論叢，35，47-94。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.羅清俊(20000300)。猜猜看誰把醃肉帶回家了：補助款利益在縣市分配的分析。人文及社會科學集刊，12(1)，1-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.羅清俊(2008)。桃園縣特別統籌款分配的政治分析。東吳政治學報，26(3)，1-56。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.羅清俊、萬榮水(19991100)。選舉與補助款的分配：綁樁？還是平衡地方財政？。選舉研究，6(2)，121-161。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.Bickers, Kenneth N.、Stein, Robert M.(1996)。The Electoral Dynamics of the Federal Pork Barrel。American Journal of Political Science，40(4)，1300-1326。  new window
23.Levitt, Steven D.、Snyder, James M. Jr.(1995)。Political Parties and the Distribution of Federal Outlays。American Journal of Political Science，39(4)，958-980。  new window
24.Stain, Robert M.、Bickers, Kenneth N.(1994)。Congressional Elections and the Pork Barrel。The Journal of Politics，56(2)，377-399。  new window
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26.林華德(1989)。〈中央政府補助款的經濟功能─台灣的驗證分析〉。《財稅研究》，21(5)，1-23。  延伸查詢new window
27.Ames, Barry.(1994)。“The Reverse Coattails Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election.”。American Political Science Review，88(1)，95-111。  new window
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43.Larcinese, Valentino, Leonzio Rizzo, and Cecilia Testa.(2006)。“Allocating the U.S. Federal Budget to the States: The Impact of President.”。The Journal of Politics，68(2)，447-456。  new window
44.Lindbeck, Assar, and Jörgen W. Weibull.(1987)。“Balanced Budget Redistribution and the Outcome of Political Competition.”。Public Choice，52，273-297。  new window
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46.Tsai, Chia-hung(2005)。Policy-Making, Local Factions and Candidate Coordination in Single Non-Transferable Voting: A Case Study of Taiwan。Party Politics，11(1)，59-77。  new window
47.Taylor, Andrew J.(2007)。“The Presidential Pork Barrel and the Conditioning Effect of Term.”。Presidential Studies Quarterly，38(1)，96-109。  new window
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49.Wilhite, Allen.(1988)。“Union Political Action Committee Contributions and Legislative Voting.”。Journal of Labor Review，9(1)，79-90。  new window
50.Worthington, Andrew C., and Brian E. Dollery.(1998)。“The Political Determination of Intergovernmental Grants in Australia.”。Public Choice，94(3-4)，299-315。  new window
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會議論文
1.盛杏湲(2006)。The Personal Vote-Seeking and the Initiation of Particularistic Benefits Bills in the Taiwanese Legislature。International Conference on Political Center or Periphery : Legislatures & Parliaments in the 21st Century，(會議日期: 2006, July 7-8)。臺北：東吳大學政治學系。  new window
學位論文
1.洪美仁(2001)。中央政府經濟發展支出之研究：民國五十一年度至九十年度(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳曉玲(2007)。影響我國府際間補助分配之因素探討(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.楊淑玲(1995)。〈政府財政補助制度之研究：對臺灣省之實證分析〉。  延伸查詢new window
4.廖志偉(2005)。臺灣地區補助款的選票購買行為之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.劉育晏(2004)。〈經濟與政治因素對國內補助款分配之影響〉。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Fenno, Richard F.(1978)。Home Style: House Members in Their Districts。Boston, MA：Little, Brown and Company。  new window
2.Geddes, Barbara(1994)。Politician's Dilemma: Building State Capacity in Latin America。University of California Press。  new window
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5.羅清俊(20010000)。臺灣分配政治。臺北：前衛。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel(1967)。The Concept of Representation。University of California Press。  new window
7.McGillivary, Fiona(2004)。Privileging Industry: The Comparative Politics of Trade and Industrial Policy。New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
8.Ames, Barry(1987)。Political Survival: Politicians and Public Policy in Latin America。University of California Press。  new window
9.Ames, Barry(2001)。The Deadlock of Democracy in Brazil。Ann Arbor, MI：University of Michigan Press。  new window
10.Couch, Jim F., and William F. Shugart.(1998)。The Political Economy of New Deal Spending。Cheltenham, UK。  new window
 
 
 
 
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