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題名：制度因素與非制度因素對民主崩潰的影響：46個半總統制國家的經驗研究
書刊名：政治科學論叢
作者：張芳華
作者(外文)：Jhang, Fang-hua
出版日期：2015
卷期：66
頁次：頁111-146
主題關鍵詞：民主崩潰；半總統制；政變論；存活分析；Democratic breakdown；Semi-presidentialism；Coup theory；Survival analysis
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:311
  • 點閱點閱:113
本文主要探討在半總統制下，影響民主崩潰的制度與非制度因素，並提出影響民主崩潰的可能機制。結合委任代理人、否決者與政變論點，本研究認為總統議會制相較於總理總統制易產生組閣爭議與政策僵局，提高了政變介入與行政獨裁的機會，易於發生民主崩潰。透過存活分析結果顯示因為總統議會制有著制度設計上的缺失，其民主崩潰的風險高於總理總統制。經濟因素中，僅GDP成長率對民主崩潰有負向且顯著的影響。先前成功政變經驗愈多，由於可降低軍方官員從事政變的風險並形成政變的牢籠，故提高民主崩潰的機率。變項間交互作用分析結果顯示總統議會制結合不佳的經濟發展或是先前成功政變經驗並不會顯著提高民主崩潰的可能性。
This study aims to explore both the institutional and non-institutional factors under semi-presidentialism that may lead to the collapse of democracy, and to study the mechanisms of these democratic crises. Utilizing the principal-agent theory, veto player theory and coup theory, this research argues that compared with premier-presidentialism, president-parliamentary constitutions are more probable to create disputes regarding the formation of the government as well as policy paralysis between the assembly and the elected president, thereby increasing the likelihood of coup intervention and administrative dictatorship, both being detrimental to democratic survival. The results of survival analysis are as follows. Firstly, owing to the institutional drawbacks of president-parliamentarism, its chance to experience a democratic breakdown is higher than the other subtype of semi-presidentialism. Secondly, of all the economic factors, GDP growth rate is the only significant variable and has a negative impact on the dependent variable. Thirdly, countries that had historically experienced more successful coups will have a higher likelihood to suffer from democratic collapse, due to lower risk faced by their military officials engaged in the coup and the coup trap. Finally, our results also show that president-parliamentarism, combined with poor economic development and possible coup threats, does not necessarily generate a high possibility of ending in a democratic collapse.
期刊論文
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5.Wiseman, John(1986)。Urban Riots in West Africa, 1977-85。The Journal of Modern African Studies，24(3)，509-518。  new window
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14.Maeda, Ko(2010)。Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown: A Competing Risks Analysis of Democratic Durability。The Journal of Politics，72(4)，1129-1143。  new window
15.Kellman, Mitchell H.、Shachmurove, Yochanan(2013)。Export and Development Montenegro 2006-2012。Montenegrin Journal of Economics，9(3)，29-43。  new window
16.Gurses, Mehmet(2011)。Democratization: A Survival Analysis。Social Science Quarterly，92(1)，164-184。  new window
17.Gassebner, Martin、Lamla, Michael J.、Vreeland, James R.(2012)。Extreme Bounds of Democracy。Journal of Conflict Resolution，57(2)，171-197。  new window
18.Elgie, Robert(2005)。From Linz to Tsebels: Three Waves of Presidential/Parliamentary Studies?。Democratization，12(1)，106-122。  new window
19.Clutterbuck, Richard(1980)。Review。International Affairs，56(1)，125-126。  new window
20.Cheibub, José Antonio、Chernykh, Svitlana(2008)。Constitutions and Democratic Performance in Semi-Presidential Democracies。Japanese Journal of Political Science，9(3)，269-303。  new window
21.Dafna, Hochman(2009)。Civil-Military Power Struggles: The Case of Mauritania。Current History，108，221-226。  new window
22.Arce, Moisés(2003)。Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru。The Journal of Politics，65(2)，572-583。  new window
23.Acemoglu, Daron、Ticchi, Davide、Vindigni, Andrea(2010)。A Theory of Military Dictatorships。American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics，2(1)，1-42。  new window
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25.Elgie, Robert、Mcmenamin, Iain(2008)。Semi-Presidentialism and Democratic Performance。Japanese Journal of Political Science，9(3)，324-340。  new window
26.Burkhart, Ross E(2000)。Economic Freedom and Democracy: Post-Cold War Tests。European Journal of Political Research，37，237-253。  new window
27.陳佩修(20000100)。軍事政變的成因、結果與影響：泰國個案研究。問題與研究，39(1)，35-65。new window  延伸查詢new window
28.王維芳(20020700)。「半總統制」下的政治穩定：以中華民國為例。遠景基金會季刊，3(3)，47-74。new window  延伸查詢new window
29.Elgie, Robert(20071200)。Varieties of Semi-Presidentialism and Their Impact on Nascent Democracies。Taiwan Journal of Democracy，3(2)，53-71。new window  new window
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31.盛杏湲(20031200)。立法機關與行政機關在立法過程中的影響力：一致政府與分立政府的比較。臺灣政治學刊，7(2)，51-105。new window  延伸查詢new window
32.吳玉山(20020100)。半總統制下的內閣組成與政治穩定--比較俄羅斯、波蘭與中華民國。俄羅斯學報，2，229-265。new window  延伸查詢new window
33.張峻豪(20110600)。半總統制運作類型的跨國研究。問題與研究，50(2)，107-142。new window  延伸查詢new window
34.王業立(19950500)。單記非讓渡投票制的政治影響：我國民意代表選舉制度的探討。選舉研究，2(1)，147-167。new window  延伸查詢new window
35.吳玉山(20110300)。半總統制：全球發展與研究議程。政治科學論叢，47，1-32。new window  延伸查詢new window
36.蘇子喬(20111200)。哪一種半總統制？--概念界定爭議的釐清。東吳政治學報，29(4)，1-72。new window  延伸查詢new window
37.蘇子喬(20101200)。臺灣憲政體制的變遷軌跡(1991~2010)：歷史制度論的分析。東吳政治學報，28:(4)，147-223。new window  延伸查詢new window
38.沈有忠(20061200)。德國威瑪共和的憲法：一個半總統制的個案研究。東吳政治學報，24，163-212。new window  延伸查詢new window
39.蔡榮祥、石鵬翔(20110300)。總理總統制與政治穩定 : 以烏克蘭、羅馬尼亞為例。政治科學論叢，47，65-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.OECD(2015)。Anti-Crruption Reforms in Ukraine。16th Istanbul Anti-Corruption Action Plan Meeting，(會議日期: October 7-9)。Paris：OECD。  new window
圖書
1.Luttwak, Edward N.(1979)。Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook。Cambridge：Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Hellinger, Daniel. C.(2011)。Comparative Politics of Latin America: Democracy at Last?。New York：Routledge。  new window
3.Nordlinger, Eric A.(1977)。Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments。Prentice-Hall, Inc.。  new window
4.林建甫(2008)。存活分析。台北：雙葉書廊有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
5.Shugart, Matthew S.、Carey, John M.(1992)。Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamic。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
6.Lipset, Seymour Martin(1960)。Political Man。Garden City, New York：London：Heinemann。  new window
7.Tsebelis, George(2002)。Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work。Princeton University Press。  new window
8.Skach, Cindy(2005)。Borrowing Constitutional Designs: Constitutional Law in Weimar Germany and the French Fifth Republic。Princeton University Press。  new window
其他
1.International Monetary Fund(2014)。Monetary Fund 2009-2011 World Economic Outlook Database，http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx， 2014/03/25。  new window
2.World Bank(2014)。GDP Growth (Annual %)，http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG， 2015/07/01。  new window
3.The Semi-Presidential One(2015)。List of President-Parliamentary and Premier Presidential Countries with Dates，http://www.semipresidentialism.com/?p=220， 2015/08/21。  new window
4.Polity IV Project(2014)。Polity IV Individual Country Regime Trends, 1946-2013，http://systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm， 2014/06/06。  new window
5.Maddion Project(2010)。Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD，http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm， 2010/03/30。  new window
6.Electoral Indices(2015)。Electoral Indices，http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/ElectionIndices.pdf， 2014/04/02。  new window
7.葉銀華(20150124)。台灣政府體制要走向何方？。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Protsyk, Oleh(2011)。Semi-Presidentialism under Post-Communism。Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy。Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
2.Stepan, Alfred C.(1978)。Political Leadership and Regime Breakdown: Brazil。The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Lartin America。The Johns Hopkins University。  new window
3.Matsuzato, Kimitaka(2011)。Disintegrated Semi-Presidentialism and Parliamentary Oligarchy in Post-Orange Ukraine。Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
4.Linz, Juan J.(1994)。Presidetial or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference。The Failure of Presidential Democracy。Baltimore：London：The Johns Hopkins University。  new window
5.Linz, Juan J.(1978)。Crisis, Breakdown, and reequalibration。The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes。Baltimore：The Johns Hopkins University。  new window
6.Jalali, Carlos(2011)。The President is Not a Passenger: Portugal's Evolving Semi- Presidentialism。Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
7.Azevedo, Elisabete、Nijzink, Lia(2007)。Semi-Presidentialism in Guinea Bissau: The Lesser Of Two Evils?。Semi-Presidentialism Outside Europe: A Comparative Study。New York：Routledge。  new window
8.Potter, David(1997)。Explaining Democratization。Democratization。Cambridge：Polity Press。  new window
9.陳愛娥(20011200)。我國現行憲法下總統角色的定位。新世紀新憲政研討會論文集。台北：元照。  延伸查詢new window
10.Elgie, Robert、Schleiter, Petra(2011)。Variation in the Durability of Semi-Presidential Democracies。Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
11.Moestrup, Sophia(2007)。Semi-Presidentialism in Young Democracies: Help or Hindrance?。Semi-Presidentialism Outside Europe。Routledge。  new window
 
 
 
 
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