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題名:住宅竊盜犯罪熱區空間分析與環境特性之研究--以台北市大安區為例
作者:劉擇昌
校院名稱:中央警察大學
系所名稱:犯罪防治研究所
指導教授:鄧煌發 蔡博文
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2011
主題關鍵詞:犯罪熱區地理資訊系統空間分析犯罪製圖Crime HotspotsGeographic Information System(GIS )Spatial Analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究由官方住宅竊盜犯罪統計資料與相關犯罪學理論、觀點與實證研究資料出發,假設地點之人文及實質環境特性對於住宅竊盜潛在犯罪者之犯罪決意具有影響,當地點之人文及實質環境形成高犯罪機會或低被捕(發現)風險時,潛在犯罪者則傾向選擇於該區域犯罪;反之,地點之人文及實質環境形成低犯罪機會或高被捕(發現)風險時,潛在犯罪者則傾向放棄於該區域犯罪。本研究引用SocGIS之概念以GIS為搭橋工具,研究重心聚焦於GIS犯罪製圖與空間分析方法技術於住宅竊盜犯罪熱區搜尋與該類犯罪預防之運用,並針對實際犯罪熱區中易發生住宅竊盜之人文及實質環境特性加以探究,最後根據實證研究結果研擬具體政策建議提供相關單位參考。
透過文獻探討、官方統計資料分析與實證研究資料之反覆對話,研究結果支持上述假定論點,並歸結出台北市大安區各年度住宅竊盜犯罪之發生狀況於全域性或區域性均有顯著之聚集現象,且不論於鄰近200公尺內、鄰近500公尺內、以及鄰近1000公尺均有數量不等之犯罪集群產生,2007年至2009年6月30日期間中,該大安區6%之區域可解釋34.5%之住宅竊盜案件發生狀況,證實該區住宅竊盜犯罪具有集中現象,及犯罪熱區確實存在之事實;另犯罪熱區中具有「居民間互動程度低」、「居民消極參與社區事務」、「居民防竊意識薄弱」、「住商混合區土地景觀之雜亂感與領域界線模糊」、「住宅區守望相助程度低」、「街道監錄系統功能不彰」、「防火巷隱密與易侵入」、「連棟式住宅連通管道多難以管制」、「住宅前後部侵入點多防不勝防」、「領域感低難以產生監控」、「照明不足」、「無人看管之空屋或空地」、「住宅老舊無人維護」、「長期施工」、「高經濟水平意象」、「門窗未關無人在家」等易發生住宅竊盜犯罪之人文及實質環境弱點及環境意象。而犯罪冷區中則具有「守望相助意識高」、「具領域感」、「關心社區」、「重視防竊設備裝設」、「街道監錄系統堪用性高」、「防火巷管理得宜」、「住宅封閉式設計」、「住宅出入口管制嚴密」、「照明設備充足」等不易發生住宅竊盜犯罪環境。針對上述研究結果本研究認為應以數量最多,四處流竄搜尋易犯罪標的之非專業竊賊,及防竊層次低易遭侵入之老舊公寓所衍生之易發生住宅竊盜大環境為主要改善方向,並於居民守望相助與防竊意識低落之前提下,將提升警方執法效能、與民眾防竊意識視為重點工作,並回歸到以人為主之政策執行面。故進一步考量警方執法能量、社區資源與治安需求,並整合環境犯罪學相關理論、觀點與GIS科技之運用從「警察單位」、「社區代表」、「居民」等對於區域中住宅竊盜犯罪切身相關、較有影響力,並能直接執行犯罪預防工作者出發,提出多元性具體建議方案以建構安全之防衛空間,使竊賊於進入該區域時即打消犯罪念頭,期能有效預防住宅竊盜犯罪事件發生。
This study assumed that environmental characteristics of humanity and substance affect decision-making process of potential burglars much on the basis of official data of residential burglary, criminology theories, and empirical researches gathered data, When environmental characteristics form higher opportunities or lower risk, potential criminals tend to commit crime in the places, on the contrary, they will tend to give up committing crime there. The study cited conception of SocGIS (GIS in Sociology), and focuses on both application of GIS crime mapping, spatial analysis in hotspots searching, crime prevention of residential burglary, and the exploring of environmental characteristics in real residential burglary hotspots where crime occurs frequently. Finally, We propose specific crime prevention policies as suggestions offering to relative organizations. 
The results first support our assumption and generalize environmental characteristics which cause residential burglary easily by cross-over data analysis of documentary review, official statistics, and empirical research. Spatial clustering analysis showed that the residential burglaries were not randomly distributed in Da-an District, but significantly concentrated in certain areas in 1999-2008, e.g. 6% area could explain 34.5% situations of residential burglaries. We then discovered there are several environmental weaknesses or images of humanity and inhabitancy which cause residential burglary easily in crime hotspots, such as “low mutual interaction among dwellers”, “low participation in community affairs of dwellers”, “low anti-burglary cognitions of dwellers”, “disorderly landscape and indistinct territoriality resulted from mixed land use ”, “low mutual attention in communities”, ” low operation efficacy of CCTV”, “hidden and easy-to-invade firebreaks”, “uncontrollable accesses of terraced house”, “low sense of territorialities and hard to oversee”, ”lacks of illumination”, “unguarded houses and lands”, “old houses without maintenance”, “long period under construction”, “high economic level images”, “unlocked doors or windows when householders are out” and so on. However, there are several environmental strength or images of humanity and inhabitancy which impede residential burglary in crime coldspots, such as “high mutual attention in communities”, “high territoriality of dwellers”, “high participation in community affairs of dwellers ”, “high anti-burglary attentions of dwellers”, ”good use and maintenance of CCTV”, “well-managed firebreaks”, “houses of enclosed type designed”, “well controlled acesses”, ”sufficient illumination”. Second, the study suggests that residential burglary prevention should focus on watching large numbers of thieves who are moving around to search suitable targets, and improve environments full of old-style and easy-to-invade apartments with few burglar-proof equipments. Further, since the concept of mutual assistance and burglary-preventing is note prevailing, residential burglary rate will be decreased effectively only by enhancing efficiency of law enforcement, promoting the concept of burglary-proof of the public, and returning to policy enforcement focusing on “people”. Finally, considering the capacity of law enforcement, resources of communities, requirement of public security, and combining the using of Criminology theories and GIS techniques, the study offers multiple suggestion aimed at “police forces”, ”community representatives”, and “ dwellers”, who are directly affected by residential burglary and are able to enforce crime prevention work in their living area. In order to build a defensible space to eliminate thieves’ crime motivation when their entering in the area, and prevent residential burglary rate effectively.
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