居家服務的照顧服務員之人力短缺顯著地影響居家服務業務的推動。因此，隨著居家服務的需求量的增加，有必要事先對照顧服務員人力需求做預測，並就預估的人力缺口加以培訓之，以滿足未來居家服務業務之需求。本需求評估研究採用次級資料分析法（secondary data analysis），對雲林縣居家服務的服務資料進行時間序列分析（time series analysis），分析居家服務的需求量和照顧服務員人數需求及其變動趨勢，並輔以實地訪談雲林縣7位居家服務承辦單位主管和7位照顧服務員，建構出雜林（Holt）模型的居家服務之照顧服務員的人力需求預測模式。本研究發現：若以滿足居家服務需求為導向，2014-2018年照顧服務員的各年度人力最少需有374人、392人、411人、429人、447人，才能滿足居家服務需求；但若是以照顧服務員人力為基礎，來決定提供居家服務的服務量時，則2014-2018年照顧服務員的各年度人力最少需有335人、361人、388人、415人、442人，才能滿足居家服務需求；在照顧服務員的流動率低於8%情形下，維持目前雲林縣照顧服務員的培訓方式，每年培訓300位有意願從事居家服務工作者，結訓並取得證照後，至少有100位實際從事居家服務工作，則可以滿足未來2014-2018年居家服務的需求量。然而有效能的留任策略比培訓計劃，更可以提供充足且有工作效能的居家服務人力。所以，雲林縣政府應督導及協助居家服務承辦單位執行對的留任策略，以滿足照顧服務員的需求並留住有工作效能的照顧服務員。

The shortage of home care worker impacts significantly on the home care service in Taiwan. Since the demand of home care service is increasing, it is necessary to develop a model to predict the manpower requirement, and to help training sufficient care workers in advance to fulfill the demand of home care. This study adopted secondary data and interview to collect data. Time series analysis was employed to analyze Yunlin County related data of home care, such as the quantity of home care needed, the amount of home care worker required, the trend of home care service requirement, to develop a Holt model of need evaluation model for manpower of home care worker. There were 7 home care service directors and 7 home care workers interviewed. The result showed that the number of home care workers required from year 2014 to 2018 is 374, 392, 411, 429, and 477 respectively to satisfy the demand of home care. However, if we use the manpower to determine the amount of service provided, the number of home care workers required from 2014 to 2018 is 335, 361, 388, 415, and 442 respectively. There are 300 home care workers trained every year in Yunlin County. There should be at least 100 of them stay in home care service to satisfy the demand of home care service from 2014 to 2018, if the turnover rate of care worker is kept below 8%. However, effective strategy in retaining care workers is more important than training new care workers. Yunlin County Government should supervise and assist home care service organizations to retain effective care workers and to satisfy the need of home care workers in order to provide sufficient and effective manpower of home care worker.