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題名：台灣職業結構與勞動市場轉型的動態分析—1978-2012
作者：張宜君
作者(外文)：Yi-Chun Chang
校院名稱：臺灣大學
系所名稱：社會學研究所
指導教授：李瑞中
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2015
主題關鍵詞：勞動市場世代；世代差異；工作機會；教育報酬；薪資軌跡；labor market cohort；cohort difference；job opportunity；return to education；wage trajectory
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本論文主要從青年就業困境出發，探討勞動市場變遷對社會階層化過程的影響。本文關注兩個時間軸度：世代差異(cohort differences)及生命歷程(life course)，檢視勞動市場結構變遷的動態發展過程如何對不同世代勞動者的就業機會及職涯發展產生影響，並從中回應個人特質與勞動市場結構變遷之間動態關係的社會學經典議題。本論文的主要資料來源包括1978年到2012年的人力資源調查，作為個人層次分析的資料來源，並佐以宏觀層次的制度變遷與全球化指標等資訊。
本論文最主要的理論貢獻在於採用勞動市場世代(labor market cohort)的概念取代傳統以出生世代(birth cohort)討論勞動者的世代經驗，認為勞動者進入勞動市場時的勞動市場結構樣貌將對其勞動經驗產生決定性的影響，相同時期進入勞動市場的勞動者共享並彼此競爭相同的資源，因而擁有相同的勞動市場經驗，此經驗將會形成外在於個人卻影響個人地位取得的結構性力量。再者，不同於過去關注勞動市場結構變遷的研究，僅透過比較各時期間的差異或各國差異間接推估勞動市場轉型的成因或結果，本研究將提供直接的經驗證據，系統性的檢視勞動市場結構變遷對各勞動市場世代勞動者就業機會與職涯發展的影響。
在此理論關懷下，回答的第一個問題是：勞動市場的就業機會如何改變？為何改變？不同於過去以個體、平均薪資的觀點討論勞動市場變遷，本分析以工作取代個人、分配替代平均，引進工作取徑(job approach, Wright and Dwyer 2003)與相對分配方法(relative distribution method, Handcock and Morris 1999)，來描繪勞動市場35年來就業機會結構的變遷。延續偏向技術性勞動的科技改變(skill-biased technological change)的理論觀點(Autor et al. 2003)，檢視產業結構變遷對勞動市場就業機會分佈變化的影響，研究結果發現：勞動市場的工作機會分佈的整體趨勢為高薪的工作機會先增後減，而低薪的工作機會先減後增，而近年有朝向兩極化發展的趨勢，工作機會同時往高薪工作與低薪工作集中。再者，工作機會分佈的變化，主要受到產業結構轉型所影響，後工業化促使勞動市場工作機會往兩極化發展，在製造業在從業人口維持穩定的情況下，產業結構變遷的影響主要表現在服務業的內部分化，高技術服務業提供了大量的高薪工作機會，使勞動市場進一步兩極分化。
接續而來的問題是：勞動市場結構改變對勞動者就業機會及職涯發展的影響為何？首先關注的是勞動者初入勞動市場時，勞動市場變遷對教育報酬世代差異的影響。此分析延續並擴展排序理論假設(queuing theory, Hodge 1973)，認為教育擴張將改變各教育程度勞動者的薪資分配樣貌；再者，勞動市場工作機會分佈的改變也直接對勞動者可觸及的工作機會產生影響。本分析將勞動者進入勞動市場的時間點作為勞動市場世代，並採用多層次線性模型(hierarchical linear model)來解釋勞動市場世代經驗對教育報酬世代差異的影響。分析結果發現，教育報酬隨著世代而下降，且此教育報酬的世代差異可以由勞動者的世代經驗來解釋。無論是教育擴張造成大量高技術勞動供給或科技發展帶來高技術勞動需求都存在獨立的影響，且對高教育勞動者與低教育勞動者發揮不同的作用。高教擴張造成的高技術勞動力供給增加，造成高教育勞動者的教育報酬下降，而使低教育勞動者的薪資提升；產業升級促成高技術勞動需求提升，增加了高等教育勞動者的教育報酬，造成不同教育程度者之間的薪資差距擴大。此外，勞動市場工作機會分佈改變也顯著影響教育報酬結構，工作機會兩極化發展將擴大不同教育程度者的薪資差距，提升高教育程度勞動者的教育報酬、削減低教育程度勞動者的薪資。
再者，從生命歷程的觀點切入，討論勞動市場結構改變對勞動者是否存在長期的影響，如何影響勞動者整個職涯的發展？本分析以特殊性人力資本(specific human capital)及未明說的契約關係(implicit contract)兩個假設切入(England 2014)，並在分析上將工作經驗區分成不同階段，包括初期的快速成長及到達頂峰後的穩定狀態。透過分段函數迴歸(Spline Regression)及HLM進行分析，進一步檢視不同世代勞動者的起薪、薪資成長軌跡與薪資高峰三者之間的關係。研究結果發現年長世代的勞動者起薪較低，但其薪資有潛力快速成長，進而有較高水準的薪資頂峰；相對於此，年輕世代的勞動者薪資較高，但薪資成長速度緩慢，且即便到了薪資高峰都難以追上年長世代的薪資水平。不同世代的勞動者的薪資軌跡差異受到勞動市場的世代經驗的長期影響，進入勞動市場時的高教育程度勞動供給程度高，會使勞動者薪資積累的速度減緩；相對於此，若勞動市場世代對高教育勞動力需求增加，則會有利於勞動者的薪資成長速度提升。
本論文期望透過青年就業議題窺見整體勞動市場變遷與個人生命歷程的交織，透過以上三個分析與研究結果，進一步討論與反省的是政府在面對或掌控勞動市場變遷的時候，應該從整體市場的機會分配變化切入，而非僅用平均薪資提升做為勞動市場好轉的宣示，並關注如何在扶植高技術且高產值的產業/勞動者以及保障弱勢勞動者之間取得平衡，當政府過度的關注於高薪工作的穩固與高技術產業的推展時，受益的將永遠是已經處於優勢位置的人們，反而讓需要受到政府保障的基層或較劣勢的勞動者被排除在政府的規劃與保障之外，或者忽略了被視為次級勞動市場的服務業內部分化對勞動市場的決定性影響。再者，勞動市場結構變遷造成的世代差異，使得從過去勞動者的經驗而建構的「標準人生」已無法描述或預測年輕世代勞動者的生活樣貌。因此，政府擬訂政策時應避免同質化所有勞動者，考量不同世代之間的結構性差異，取代輿論及政治影響力來規劃並分配資源，才能充分保障人民的福祉。
This research focuses on two time-related concepts: cohort difference and life course, examines how the dynamics of labor market transformation affect workers’ employment opportunities and career development, and reflects on the classic issue in sociology of the dynamics between individual actor and structure. One of the main contributions of this dissertation is that using the labor market cohort replaces with birth cohort referring to the timing people entering the labor market. People within the same labor markets cohort share and compete resources in the labor market and experience similar labor market structures; furthermore, the sharing experience will affect their employment outcomes beyond individual characteristics. Additionally, this research provides direct empirical evidence and systematically examines the sources and the consequences of the labor market transformation rather than indirect comparison among period differences or county differences.
Using data from manpower survey between 1978 and 2012 as individual-level data, and indices of institutional factors and globalization information as macro-level data, I try to answer three questions: How and why does the job opportunity change over time? Whether do people from different cohorts experience different employment opportunities and develop different career trajectory? How does the labor market transformation explain the cohort differences in employment opportunities and career trajectory?
The first analysis concerns the role of “job” in the labor market. Instead of individualized and mean-driven way to describe the labor market, I introduce job approach (Wright and Dwyer 2003) and relative distribution method (Handcock and Morris 1999) to plot the changes in job opportunity in the labor market over 35 years. And based on skill-biased technological change theory (Autor et al. 2003), I investigate the effect of industrial transformation on the changes in the distribution of job opportunity. The findings show that 1) the trends in the distribution of job opportunity reveals that higher-paying jobs increase in the beginning and then decrease, while lower-paying jobs decrease at first and then increase. Recently, both higher-paying and lower-paying jobs increase after 2006, that is, the distribution of job opportunity tends to be polarized. 2) Post-industrialization increases the extent of job polarization, and to be more precise, the division within the service sector is the main source of job polarization. High-skilled service sector provides especially more higher-paying jobs in the labor market.
The following questions shift the focus from macro-level to micro-level, and concerns how the changing structures of the labor market influence individual’s employment outcomes. To begin with, I concentrate on the new entrants in the labor market and examine the cohort differences in return to education. Extending the queuing theory (Hodge 1973), I state that the wage distribution among workers with different level of education varies by educational expansion and further the distribution of job opportunity determines individual’s access to the jobs. In this study, I propose that the sharing experience of the labor market cohort will affect their employment outcomes beyond individual characteristics. Thus, I use hierarchical linear model (HLM) to explain how the cohort experience impact the cohort difference in return to education. Results display the decrease in the return to college by labor market cohort and the significant effects of the structures of the labor market on the cohort difference in return to education. The increased supply of educated workers leads to the lower wage for college graduates and the better wages for worker graduating from junior high school or under; in contrast, the increased demand of educated workers benefits high-skilled workers rather than low-skilled workers. Moreover, job polarization will bring educated workers higher wages, but exacerbate wages for the workers with low skills.
Furthermore, from the perspective of life course, I would like to understand whether and how the effects of changing structures in the labor market last over the career. By using spline regression and HLM, I can examine the relationship among beginning wages, wage trajectories, and the plateau of wages to test cohort differences in wage trajectory depending on the hypotheses of firm-specific human capital and implicit contract (England 2014). The findings show that the older cohort tends to have a lower wage to begin with but experience a steeper trajectory to accumulate their wage and then achieve a higher plateau; whereas, the younger cohort has a higher beginning wage, but then their wages increase slowly and end up with a lower plateau. This cohort difference in wage trajectory is influenced by the lasting effect of labor market transformation. The higher supply of educated workers, the gentler slope of wage trajectory people will have. The higher demand of educated workers, the steeper slope of wage trajectory people will have.
This study confirms that the labor market transformation intertwines with individual life course, and people are empowered and constrained under the structures. Therefore, we have to notice that the changing structures of the labor market influences workers’ employment outcomes in the long run. People will experience and develop different life trajectories under different cohort experience. The policy implications are discussed in the last section.
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