This study aimed to explore the trend of fewer children and its effects on senior high school enrollments. Trend analysis and cluster analysis were used, and the data were drawn from the database of the Taiwan government. Main findings of the study include: 1. The gap between public senior high enrollments and private senior high school enrollments will widen. Public senior high school enrollments will remain stable; 64 of the private senior high schools will suffer unstable enrollments, and 56 of them will face withdrawal. In the coming five years, students who attend public senior high schools, especially public vocational high schools, will outnumber those that attend private senior high schools. 2. Student recruitment will get more competitive among schools. On the island of Taiwan, during the academic years between 2017 and 2021, the enrollments of first-year senior high students in all school districts will fall dramatically. Schools will face more pressures of student recruitment except for those that have their unique characteristics (i.e. those that have good and stable student enrollments). 3. It is predicted that problems with student recruitment will become more serious for the schools that have low student enrollment rates. In the academic years 2017-2021, schools that have a student enrollment rate of 58% or lower will be faced with withdrawal or unstable enrollments. It is further predicted that a student enrollment rate of 22% or lower will force a private school to withdraw.