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題名:潛在的超強:中國崛起的地緣戰略與亞太安全研究
作者:王俊評
作者(外文):Wang, Chun Ping
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:外交研究所
指導教授:林碧炤
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2012
主題關鍵詞:中國亞太地緣政治次體系權力平衡地緣戰略地緣政治密碼戰略文化ChinaAsia-Pacific Geopolitical SubsystemBalance of PowerGeo-strategyGeopolitical CodeStrategic Culture
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本論文的問題意識在於,中國是否將與其古代帝國一樣,在力量強大時追求以武力或其他強制手段達成戰略目標,並試圖建立以其為核心的東亞勢力範圍與國際秩序,結果導致升高與周邊國家甚至美國在內的其他亞太強國的緊張關係與衝突發生機率,與其所宣稱的「和平發展/崛起」、「和諧世界」不符。
中國戰略菁英繼承了帝國時代遺留下來的天下觀、內政導向戰略文化與陸權性格等地緣戰略遺產。同時,缺乏海軍戰略傳統的中國也在1950年代從同為大陸強國的蘇聯之處承接了19、20世紀的法國、德國、蘇聯等歐陸國家發展出來的以劣抗優的大陸國家縱深防禦海軍戰略與積極防禦艦隊海戰戰略。這些遺產與當代外來海軍戰略共同促成了中國的陸權式海洋地緣戰略。
在中國的陸權式海洋地緣戰略中,古代天下觀在當代因為中國的國力迅速發展與中國戰略菁英的自信加強,而逐漸形成強調中國制度與文化優越性的新「中國中心主義」。此一新中國中心主義配合中國追求實現其領土主權聲索的現代「九州一統」周邊地緣政治密碼,壓倒日本、印度、東協等區域競爭對手,組織以其為核心的東亞地緣戰略領域的區域地緣政治密碼,以及中國自冷戰時期起就發展出的追求全球體系多極化與建立國際政治經濟新秩序,和在冷戰後希望消除美國於東亞的影響力,追求將亞太地緣政治次體系轉變為美中並立兩極結構的體系/次體系地緣政治密碼,使得中國難以成為一個維持現狀的國家。而中國的內政導向戰略文化雖然強調對內優先於對外,但其實際上具備相當重視權力政治與武力在國際事務中效用的強現實政治特徵和備戰本質。而中國的陸權性格與從蘇聯繼承而來的陸權式海洋地緣戰略,使當代中國的地緣戰略重心與方向皆位於東亞大陸與周邊海域,並未真正跨出亞太邊緣地區,只是將西太平洋的島鏈作為海上長城、島鏈周圍的海洋作為新的資源開發地區與戰略緩衝區,以此區隔與美國在亞太的勢力範圍,並按照安西、靠北、爭東南的地緣戰略操作來組織受其支配的東亞地緣戰略領域。
本論文認為中國擴大參與東亞整合的原因,只是為了因應目前其實力尚無法獨力以軍事、政治等強制性手段完成組織受其支配的東亞地緣戰略領域的戰略目的的間接戰略運用,目的是藉此極大化中國的利益,並取得東亞整合的主導權。中國並無意在傳統安全議題與領土爭端和周邊國家與其他亞太主要強國妥協,並利用多邊傳統安全國際建制達成地緣政治安排,促成亞太地緣政治均衡。中國的陸權式海洋地緣戰略雖然限於中國的海上戰略交通線控制能力,最終目的並不在取代美國成為體系中的新海權,但卻能嚴重威脅美國的海權地位,以及其他亞太主要強國和中國周邊中小型濱海國家的地緣政治利益。因此安西、靠北、爭東南的地緣戰略操作除了在北線地緣之外,皆激起其他次體系主要大國與東協的競爭性權力平衡反應。此種戰略反饋又使中國增強本身的競爭性權力平衡作為,難以形成達成均衡必要的協作性權力平衡。因此,中國的地緣戰略仍是傳統爭奪控制戰略交通線與要地的類型,不是為了追求和諧世界與地緣政治均衡的新類型,故無法促進目前不存在均衡的亞太地緣政治次體系達成均衡,反而可能升高與周邊國家甚至美國的衝突機率。
但是,中國受制於本身有限的戰略交通線控制能力,目前仍無法形成其他次體系主要強國真正的傳統安全威脅,更為了繼續實施經濟建設,必須盡力維持周邊國際環境的穩定。其他亞太主要強國為了繼續藉由與中國的交往獲得的龐大經濟利益,在中國還未成為真正戰略威脅的情況下,亦不願意真正與中國敵對,導致亞太地緣政治次體系的局勢將逐漸走向中國與海洋國家之間政治上經常引發緊張關係,但其他方面互動熱絡,不致立即引發武裝衝突危機的「冷和平」狀態,無法形成真正的地緣政治均衡。
關鍵字:中國、亞太地緣政治次體系、權力平衡、地緣政治均衡、地緣政治密碼、戰略文化、地緣戰略
The research question of this dissertation is that whether China might seek to apply coercive measures to create an East Asia Geostrategic Realm and to dominate the turf by itself, which just like what pre-modern China’s Empires did. Because of the increasing possibility of armed conflicts between China and other regional powers, including the United States, these measures will put the international security of the Asia-Pacific region in jeopardy. Furthermore, this is not according to what China’s claim on “peaceful development/rising” or the so-called “harmonious world.”
Modern Chinese strategic elites inherit three main geo-strategic legacies such as the Chinese traditional concept of “Tianxia” (天下觀), domestic-oriented strategic culture, and national land-power nature in China’s history. China also receives the European thought of continental-oriented naval strategy from the Soviet Union while Maoist China built its navy which supported by the Soviet’s help in the 1950s. These legacies and foreign naval strategic thought not only shape modern China’s “Land-Power Maritime Geo-strategy,” but also affect the nature, gravity, directions, and the major operations of the geo-strategy.
Base on China’s rapid economic growth and military modernization, the self-confidential Chinese elites gradually transform the traditional concept of Tianxia into the new “Sino-centricism,” which stress on the superiority of China’s culture and politico-economic systems. In terms of the geopolitical codes of modern China, they pursue the realization of territorial claims for the purpose of “union” on the local level; overwhelming the competitions of leadership in East Asia from Japan, India, and the ASEAN for creating a Chinese-dominated East Asian Geostrategic Realm on the regional level; pursuing multi-polarization of the international system and, establishing new international politico-economic orders on the systemic level, and dispel the influence of United States in East Asia by transforming the Asia-Pacific geopolitical structure into a bipolarity on the sub-systemic level. Over all, these three levels of geopolitical codes and the new “Sino-centricism” would not make China be a status-quo power in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical sub-system. Additionally, with regard to the domestic-oriented strategic culture, although it stresses the priority of domestics, it also values power politics and the effectiveness of forces in the international politics. The domestic-oriented strategic culture of China, therefore, has the strong characteristics of hard “realpolitik” and “parabellum”.
China’s traditional land-power nature aside, its continental-oriented naval strategy is developed from the thought of the Soviet naval strategy and put the gravity and directions of China’s “Land-Power Maritime Geo-strategy” in East Asian continent. China does not go beyond the “Asia-Pacific Rim” actually. What China does is using the “two island-chain” defense in West Pacific as a “Great Wall at Sea,” and the seas around the island chains as strategic buffer zone to distinguish the sphere of influence between China and the United States. China applies the strategic principles of “stabilizing West, relying on North, competing for the Southeast” to organize the region in the west of the island chains and shaping its dominance in the East Asian Geostrategic Realm.
The dissertation argues that since China cannot organize the East Asian Strategic Realm by political and military means at present, China’s participations in East Asian integrations are indirect strategic behavior. The purposes of indirect approaches are to utilize China’s economic interests and to obtain the leadership of East Asian integrations. China would not like to compromise with its neighbors and other Asia-Pacific Powers on highly sensitive traditional security issues, like territorial disputes essentially. Nor does China attempt to shape multi-pole geopolitical arrangements to achieve the geopolitical equilibrium of Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Sub-system by applying multi-pole international regimes.
Furthermore, the purpose of China’s “Land-Power Maritime Geo-strategy” is not to replace the United States as the Sea Power in the system just because China lacks the ability of controlling global strategic sea lines of communications. The Chinese naval strategy of active layer defense can still seriously threaten the Sea Power status of the United States and the important geopolitical interests of China’s neighbors. Therefore, the implementations of aforesaid geo-strategy of “stabilizing West, relying on North, competing for the Southeast,” seriously raise “adversary balance of power” in both West and Southeast fronts due to the convergences of geopolitical interests between China and other powers. Nevertheless, the adversary balancing feedback of other Asia-Pacific powers and even the ASEAN countries enhance China’s adversary behavior as well. This reciprocal process cannot create the necessary “associational balance of power” of geopolitical equilibrium. In other words, China’s geo-strategy belongs to the “traditional” type, which stresses the importance of controlling strategic communication in the Asia-Pacific region. It is not the “new” type of pursuing “harmonious world” and geopolitical equilibrium. Therefore, China’s geo-strategy cannot advance the equilibrium of Asia-Pacific geopolitical sub-system. On the contrary, it may raise the possibility of conflicts between China and Asia-Pacific countries, even the United States.
China is not deemed as major traditional threat by other major Asia-Pacific regional powers due to lacking the capabilities of controlling strategic communication of Asia-Pacific geopolitical sub-system. China must do its best to maintain the stability of the surrounding international environment to continue its economic development. Other major Asia-Pacific powers would like to obtain huge economic interests by engaging with China. As a result, the security of Asia-Pacific geopolitical sub-system will gradually develop into a “cold peace” situation, but not the situation of geopolitical equilibrium. The “cold peace” is a situation not only can fill with geopolitical tensions between China and other major Asia-Pacific powers, but also can interact closely with each other on social, economic, cultural and other dimensions, which prevent the crisis of the outbreak of immediate armed conflicts in the region.
Key Words: China, Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Subsystem, Balance of Power, Geopolitical Equilibrium, Geopolitical Code, Strategic Culture, Geo-strategy
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洪丁福,德國的分裂與統一:從俾斯麥到柯爾(臺北:臺灣商務印書館,1994年)。
胡鞍鋼主編,地區與發展:西部開發新戰略(北京:中國計畫出版社,2001年)。
倪樂雄,尋找敵人:戰爭文化與國際軍事問題透視(北京:經濟管理出版社,2003年)。
倪樂雄,尋找敵人:戰爭文化與國際軍事問題透視(北京:經濟管理出版社,2003年)。
宮玉振,中國戰略文化解析 (北京:軍事科學出版社,2002年)。
孫健,中華人民共和國經濟史(1949-1990年代初)(北京:中國人民大學,1992年)。
席隆飛、楊熺、唐錫仁主編,中國科學技術史 (北京:科學出版社,2004年),交通卷。
席隆飛、楊熺、唐錫仁主編,中國科學技術史 (北京:科學出版社,2004年),交通卷。
徐瑜編撰,孫子兵法:不朽的戰爭藝術(台北市:時報文化,1994年)。
烏云畢力格、成德崇撰,伊克昭盟蒙古民族通史編委會編,蒙古民族通史(內蒙古:內蒙古大學出版社,1991年)。
馬持盈,史記今註,第3版(臺北:臺灣商務印書館,1987年)。
張文木,世界地緣政治中的中國國家安全利益分析(濟南:山東人民出版社發行,新華經銷,2004年)。
張文木,論中國海權,第二版(北京:海洋出版社,2010年)。
張世平,中國海權(北京:人民日報出版社,2009年)。
張序三主編,海軍大辭典(上海:上海辭典出版社,1993年)。
張國剛,唐代藩鎮研究,增訂版(北京:中國人民大學出版社,2009年)。
張榮芳、黃淼章,南越國史,第2版(廣州:廣東人民出版社,2008年)。
章世平,中國海權(北京:人民日報出版社,1998年)。
許倬雲,西周史(臺北:聯經出版事業有限公司,1984年)。
許輝,蔣福亞主編,六朝經濟史(江蘇:江蘇古籍出版社,1993年)。
雪克注譯,新譯公羊傳(臺北:三民書局股份有限公司,1998年)。
陸俊元,地緣政治的本質與規律(北京:時事出版社,2005年)。
陶晉生,宋遼關係史研究(臺北:聯經,1984年)。new window
郭偉濤,人民戰爭論(北京:解放軍出版社,1992年)。
陳國權、王誠宏、張忠江、鄒洪學等主編,中華人民共和國經濟建設簡史(1949-1994)(北京:中國物資出版社,1995年)。
陳寅恪,唐代政治史述論稿,臺二版(臺北:臺灣商務印書館,1994年)。
傅紹傑註譯,吳子今註今譯(臺北:臺灣商務印書館,1985年)。
彭光謙,軍事戰略簡論(北京:解放軍出版社,1989年)。
彭光謙、姚有志主編,戰略學(北京:軍事科學出版社,2001年)。
景愛,中國長城史(上海:上海人民出版社,2006年)。
曾瑞龍,拓邊西北―北宋中後期對夏戰爭研究(香港,中華書局,2006年)。
曾瑞龍,經略幽燕(979-987)──宋遼戰爭災難的軍事分析(香港:中文大學出版社,2003年)。
曾瑞龍,經略幽燕(979-987)──宋遼戰爭災難的軍事分析(香港:中文大學出版社,2003年)。
程廣中,地緣戰略論(北京:國防大學出版社,1999年)。
鈕先鍾,大戰略漫談(臺北:華欣文化事業中心,1977年)。
鈕先鍾,西方戰略思想史(臺北:麥田出版社,1995年)。
鈕先鍾,孫子三論(臺北:麥田出版社,二版,2007年)。
鈕先鍾,現代戰略思潮(臺北:黎明文化事業股份有限公司,再版,1989年)。
鈕先鍾,第一次世界大戰史(臺北:燕京文化事業股份有限公司,1977年)。
黃仁宇,中國大歷史(臺北:聯經出版事業公司,1993年)。
黃仁宇,放寬歷史的視界,增訂一版(臺北:允晨文化,1999年)。
黃寬重主編,中國史新論‧基層社會分冊(臺北:中央研究院與聯經出版,2009年)。
楊金森、梁喜新、黃明魯,中國海洋開發戰略(武漢,華中理工大學出版社,1990年)。
楊家駱主編,新校三國志附索引,第4版(臺北:鼎文書局,1980年)。
楊家駱主編,新校本漢書并附編二種,第5版(臺北:鼎文書局,1983年)。
楊家駱主編,新校本舊唐書附索引(臺北:鼎文書局,1976年)。
楊家駱主編,新校資治通鑑注,第4版(臺北:世界書局,1972年)。
楊寬,戰國史(台北:臺灣商務印書館,1997年)。new window
楚樹龍、金威主編,中國外交戰略和政策(北京:時事出版社,2008年)。
溫洪隆注譯,新譯戰國策(臺北:三民書局股份有限公司,1996年)。
葉自成,中國大戰略:中國成為世界大國的主要問題及戰略選擇(北京:中國社會科學出版社,2003年)。
葉自成,陸權發展與大國興衰:地緣政治環境與中國和平發展的地緣戰略選擇(北京:新星出版社,2007年)。
葉自成,新中國外交思想:從毛澤東到鄧小平──毛澤東、周恩來、鄧小平外交思想比較研究(北京:北京大學出版社,2001年)。
葉自成主編,地緣政治與中國外交(北京:北京出版社,1998年)。
葛劍雄,統一與分裂──中國歷史的啟示(北京:三聯書店,1994年)。
董鎖成、李周、魏曉東著,中國西部大開發戰略研究(西安:陝西人民出版社,1999年)。
蒲寧,地緣戰略與中國安全環境的塑造(北京:時事出版社2009年)。
趙汀陽,天下體系:世界制度哲學導論(北京:中國人民大學出版社,2011年)。
趙常慶等著,中亞五國與中國西部大開發(北京:昆侖出版社,2004年)。
趙翊達,日本海上自衛隊:國家戰略下之角色(臺北:秀威資訊科技,2008年)。
劉中民,世界海洋政治與中國海洋發展戰略(北京:時事出版社2009年)
劉伯驥,春秋會盟政治(臺北:中華叢書編審委員會,1962年)。
劉昭民,中國歷史上之氣候變遷(臺北市:臺灣商務印書館,1992年)。new window
劉強主編,國際安全‧2010(北京:時事出版社,2011年)。
劉清才,東北亞地緣政治與中國地緣戰略(天津:天津人民出版社,2007年)。
劉華清,劉華清回憶錄(北京:解放軍出版社,2004年)。
劉學銚,北亞游牧民族雙軌政制(臺北:南天書局,1999年)。
滕昕雲,閃擊戰-迷思與真相:普魯士德意志軍事思想的詮釋(臺北:老戰友工作室,2003年)。
樓耀亮,地緣政治與中國國防戰略(天津:天津人民出版社,2002年)。
蔣君章,政治地理學原理(台北:中外出版社,1976年)。
鄧小平,鄧小平文選(北京:人民出版社,1993年),第三卷。
盧烈紅注譯,新譯鹽鐵論(臺北:三民書局股份有限公司,1995年)。
薄一波,若干重大決策與事件的回顧(北京:中共中央黨校,1991年),下卷。
韓非,韓非子(上海:上海古籍出版社,1989年)。
鞠海龍,中國海權戰略(北京:時事出版社,2010年)。
聶華林、馬紅翰編著,中國區域經濟格局與發展戰略(北京:中國社會科學出版社,2009年)。
嚴耕望,唐代交通圖考(上海:上海古籍出版社,2007年),卷一。
嚴耕望,唐代交通圖考(上海:上海古籍出版社,2007年),卷二。
欒景河主編,中俄關係的歷史與現實(:河南大學出版社,2004年)。
專書譯著
吳玉貴譯,日本防衛廳防衛研修所戰史室編撰,全面潰退與與最後防線(臺北:國防部史政編譯局,1989年)。
吳玉貴譯,日本防衛廳研修所戰史室編,戰前之大本營海軍部(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1990年)。
李春福譯,文正仁著,中國崛起的大戰略──與中國知識菁英的深層對話(北京:世界知識出版社,2011年)。
周全譯,Sebastian Haffner著,不含傳說的普魯士(新北市:左岸文化,2012年)。
阿風等譯,黃仁宇著,十六世紀明代中國之財政與稅收(臺北:聯經出版事業公司,2001年)。
施康強、顧良譯,Fernand Braudel著, 15至18世紀的物質文明、經濟和資本主義(台北:貓頭鷹出版社有限公司,1999年)。
孫家坤譯,Juan Gonzalez de Mendoza編撰,中華大帝國史(南京:譯林出版社,2011年)。
高一中譯,Michael Lindberg and Daniel Todd著,近岸、近海及遠洋艦隊-自1861年迄今地理環境對海軍作戰之影響(台北:國防部史政編譯室,2005年)。
高一中譯,Stephen Philip Cole著,印度:成型中的強權(臺北:國防部史政編譯室,2003年)。
鈕先鍾中譯,Michael Howard and Peter Paret英譯,Carl von Clausewitz著,戰爭論(台北:軍事譯粹社,1980年)。
鈕先鍾譯,André Beaufre著,戰略緒論(台北:麥田出版社股份有限公司,1996年)。
鈕先鍾譯,Antonie Henri Jomini著,戰爭藝術(台北:麥田出版社股份有限公司,1996年)。
鈕先鍾譯,J. F. C. Fuller著,西洋世界軍事史(臺北:軍事譯粹社,1996年),卷一。
鈕先鍾譯,J. F. C. Fuller著,西洋世界軍事史(臺北:軍事譯粹社,1996年),卷三。
楊鎮甲譯,Alfred T. Mahan著,海軍戰略論(台北:中華文化事業出版委員會:1956年)。
劉從德譯,Geoffrey Parker著,地緣政治學:過去、現在和未來(北京:新華出版社,2003年)。
錢懷源、黃志潔譯,Sergei Gorshkov著,蘇俄海軍的崛起(臺北:黎明文化事業股份有限公司,1975年)。
薛絢譯,Daniel Yergin著,石油世紀(台北:時報文化出版企業有限公司,1991年)。
謝鴻嶷譯,日本防衛廳防衛研修所戰史室編撰,海軍戰略重建與第三階段前期海戰(臺北:國防部史政編譯局,1980年)。
鍾美珠譯,長澤和俊著,絲綢之路史研究(天津:天津古籍出版社,1990年)。
專書篇章
王希先,「淺談粟裕的軍事思想」,潘石英主編,當代中國軍事思想精要(北京:解放軍出版社,1992年),頁457-463。
王信賢,「中國大陸區域經濟發展」,魏艾主編,中國大陸經濟發展與市場轉型(臺北:揚智出版社,2003),頁164。
史念海,「春秋以前的道路」,史念海著,河山集‧七集(西安:陝西師範大學出版社,1999年),頁114-115、116-119。
安‧耶杰姆斯基,「蘇聯參加第二次亞非會議的計畫及對華策略」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁325-345。
江澤民,「加快改革開放和現代化建設步伐,奪取有中國特色社會主義事業的更大勝利」,中共中央文獻室編,十四大以來重要文獻選編(上)(北京:人民出版社,1996年),頁34、36。
江澤民,「全面建設小康社會,開創中國特色社會主義事業新局面──在中國共產黨第十六次全國代表大會上的報告」,新華月報編,十六大以來黨和國家重要文獻選編(上)(北京:人民出版社,2005年),第一冊,頁19、34、37。
江澤民,「高舉鄧小平理論偉大旗幟,把建設有中國特色社會主義事業全面推向二十一世紀」,中共中央文獻室編,十五大以來重要文獻選編(上)(北京:人民出版社,2000年),41-42、43。
吳玲君,「中國與大湄公河次區域經濟合作:區域合作與能源安全」,金榮勇主編,東亞區域意識下的亞太戰略發展(台北:國立政治大學國際關係研究中心,民國96年),頁31-51。
吳浙,「環渤海地區經濟──競爭中的發展」,陳德昇主編,中國大陸區域經濟發展:變遷與挑戰(臺北:五南圖書出版公司,2003年),頁262、271。
呂德良,「不期而遇的局面:1969年中蘇美三角關係論析」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁434-456。
李丹慧,「失去的機遇?──赫魯曉夫下台後中蘇實現和解的新嘗試」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁391-421。
李文志,「中共的亞太戰略:海洋戰略的開展與挑戰」,蕭全政等著,劇變中的亞太與兩岸關係(臺北:業強出版社,1996年),頁129。new window
沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁206-244。
周建明,「亞太格局與中國的東亞戰略」,胡鞍鋼主編,中國大戰略(杭州:浙江人民出版社,2003年),頁294-295、299。
周萬,「與中蘇爭奪第三世界:1958-1959年鐵托的亞非之行」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁266-299。
杰‧弗里德曼,「1960年代蘇聯對發展中世界的政策與中國的挑戰」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁300-324。
門洪華,「中國國家安全觀念的創新」,門洪華主編,中國:大國崛起(浙江:浙江人民出版社,2004年),頁172、206、213。
門洪華,「變被動應對為主動謀劃,維護和拓展國家利益」,胡鞍鋼主編,中國大戰略(杭州:浙江人民出版社,2003年),頁95-96。
胡鞍鋼,「我為什麼主張繼續提高國防開支佔GDP比重」,胡鞍鋼主編,中國大戰略(杭州:浙江人民出版社,2003年),頁317-320、322-325。
胡錦濤,「高舉中國特色社會主義偉大旗幟,為奪取建設小康社會新勝利而奮鬥」,中共中央文獻室編,十七大以來重要文獻選編(上)(北京:中央文獻出版社,2009年),頁18、33、35、36、36-37、37。
范碩,「葉劍英對現代軍事理論的傑出貢獻」,潘石英主編,當代中國軍事思想精要(北京:解放軍出版社,1992年),頁401-403。
馬保安,「戰略的含義、特點和分類」,王文榮主編,戰略學(北京:國防大學出版社1999年),頁18-22。
張弘遠,「中國大陸『振興東北』總體戰略的內涵與分析」,陳德昇、許光泰主編,振興東北:政策、機遇與挑戰(臺北:政治大學國際關係研究中心2004年),頁57。
張蘊岭,「構建中國與周邊國家之間的新關係」,張蘊岭主編,中國與周邊國家:構建新型夥伴關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社,2008),頁11-12。
章百家,「90年代的中國內政與外交」,郭德宏、王海光、韓鋼主編,中華人民共和國專題史稿,第2版(成都:四川人民出版社,2009年),卷五,頁87、88。
陳文源,「明朝士大夫的安南觀」,全球化下明史研究之新視野論文集(台北:東吳大學歷史系,2007年),第三冊,頁39-42。new window
陳槃,「春秋列國的兼併遷徙與民族混同和落後地區的開發」,中央研究院歷史語言研究所與中國上古史編輯委員會編,中國上古史待定稿(臺北:中央研究院歷史語言研究所與中國上古史編輯委員會,1985年),第三本,頁316。new window
鈕先鍾譯,Herbert Rosinski著,「海權在未來戰爭中的任務」,Mitchell Simpson III編,鈕先鍾譯,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁161-183。
鈕先鍾譯,Herbert Rosinski著,「第二次世界大戰海權的擴張」,收錄於Mitchell Simpson III編,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁55-70。
鈕先鍾譯,Herbert Rosinski著,「德國的海戰理論」,Mitchell Simpson III編,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁71-92。
鈕先鍾譯,Herbert Rosinski著,「德國海軍思想中的戰略與宣傳」,Mitchell Simpson III編,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁93-134。
鈕先鍾譯,Herbert Rossinski著,「論制海權」,Mitchell Simpson III編,鈕先鍾譯,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁1-25。
鈕先鍾譯,Mitchell Simpson III著,「原編者導言」,Mitchell Simpson III編,海軍思想的發展(台北:國防部史政編譯局,1987年),頁1-27。
黃河,「進退之間:中國外交理論更化與重建」,上海社會科學院社會經濟與政治研究所編,多邊合作與中國外交(北京:時事出版社,2010年),頁154-155。
楊奎松,「中美和解過程中的中方變奏:毛澤東“三個世界”理論提出的背景探析」,沈志華、李濱主編,脆弱的聯盟:冷戰與中蘇關係(北京:社會科學文獻出版社),頁462-481。
廖文中,「中共廿一世紀海軍戰略對亞太區域安全之影響」,廖文中主編,中共軍事研究論文集(臺北:中共研究雜誌社,2001年),頁99、103-107、113-114。
閻學通,「中國人看中國崛起」,閻學通、孫學峰等著,中國崛起及其戰略(北京:北京大學出版社,2005年),頁62-63。
閻學通,「中國崛起的實力地位」,閻學通、孫學峰等著,中國崛起及其戰略(北京:北京大學出版社,2005年),頁81、104。
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期刊文章
丁樹範,「市場因素與一九九O年代以後中國裝備體系的改革」,中國大陸研究,第48卷第1期,2005年3月,頁29-49。new window
丁樹範,「全球化下的中國國防工業」,中國大陸研究,第49卷第3期,2006年9月,頁1-22。new window
中山,「李光耀回憶鄧小平決策對越自衛反擊戰」,領導文萃(福建),第8期(2007年),頁57。
孔小惠,「中國作為陸海複合國家的地緣戰略選擇」,國際關係學院學報,2008年第2期,頁12-17。
王冬青,「論鄭和下西洋與明成祖的威懾外交戰略」,江蘇社會科學(江蘇),第1期(2005年),頁205-211。
王玉祥,「淺說明朝的關外衛」,甘肅社會科學(甘肅),2000年04期,頁72-74。
王青松,「南宋海防初探」,中國邊疆史地研究(北京),第14卷第3期(2004年9月),頁98-107。
王青松,「海軍在南宋國防中的地位與作用」,南都學壇(人文社會科學學報)(河南),第24卷第3期(2004年5月),頁35-36。
王俊評,「制海權與中國海軍戰略」,遠景基金會季刊,第11卷,第1期,(2010年3月),頁131-178。new window
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王軍,「雷蒙‧阿隆的歷史社會學方法析論」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第1期(2007年),頁32。
牛海楨、李曉英,「簡論清朝初年對青海蒙古的政策」,蘭州大學學報(社會科學版)(甘肅),第35卷第2期(2007年3月),頁114。
王偉,「明代士大夫的天下觀:以1368-1428年中越關係為中心」,求索(湖南),頁231-232。
王逢云,「新疆阿拉山口口岸發展現狀及前景展望」,沿海企業與科技(廣西),總第114期(2009年11月),頁73-76。
王景澤,「清朝的黃教政策與蒙古社會」,東北師大學報(哲學社會科學版)(吉林),總第195期(2002年),頁34-40。
王景澤,「清朝的黃教政策與蒙古社會」,東北師大學報(哲學社會科學版)(吉林),總第195期(2002年),頁34-40。
王曾惠、張競,「另眼看海權」,中華戰略學刊(2001年冬季號),頁181-186。
王慶新,「春秋華夏天下秩序的啟示」,國際政治科學(北京),總第25期(2011年),頁83-84。
王繼東,「北宋對越南從“郡縣其地”到宗藩關係確立的轉變」,鄭州大學學報(哲學社會科學版)(河南),第41卷第2期(2008年3月),頁151-155。
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甘逸驊,「歐洲安全防衛政策的軍事層面:歐盟的全球戰略地位」,問題與研究,第45卷第5期 (2006年9、10月),頁124-126。new window
田澍、毛雨辰,「20世紀80年代以來明代西北邊鎮研究述評」,西域研究(新疆),第2期(2005年),頁105-108。
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艾文革,「中國戰略及轉向-中國將在寮、緬、泰武裝護航」,全球防衛雜誌,第328期(2011年12月),頁12-13。
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宋偉,「關於地緣政治結構的理論:批判與建設」,世界經濟與政治(北京),2002年第2期,頁74-75。
宋增華,「海權的發展趨勢及中國海權發展戰略構想─兼論海上行政執法力量興起對中國海權發展的影響」,中國軟科學(北京),2009年第7期,頁188。
宋燕輝,「美國對南海周邊國家歷史性水域主張之反應(上)」,問題與研究,第37卷第10期(1998年10月),頁4-8。new window
宋燕輝,「美國對南海周邊國家歷史性水域主張之反應(下)」,問題與研究,第37卷第11期(1998年11月),頁65。new window
李元俊,「在他國專屬經濟區進行軍事測量的法律分析」,東方法學(上海市),第6期(2010年),頁157。
李文志、蕭文軒,「大湄公河流域爭霸戰:大湄公河經濟合作的推展及其戰略意涵」,臺灣東南亞學刊,第2卷,第1期(2005年4月),頁83-126。new window
杜永吉,「論中國戰略文化的近代流變」,軍事歷史研究(上海),第3期(2005年),頁143-143。
杜朝平,「島鏈對中國海軍的影響有多大」,艦載武器(河南),第5期(2004年),頁40。
李義虎,「從海陸二分到海陸統籌──對中國海陸關係的再審視」,現代國際關係(北京),2007年第8期,頁1-7。
李曉燕,「中國明代戰略文化與儒家文化一致性的研究─與江憶恩商榷」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第10期(2008年),頁66-76。
李曉燕,「文化、戰略文化、國家行為」,外交評論(北京),第4期(2009年),頁83-93。
李曉燕,「戰略文化與國家行為─江憶恩戰略文化理論評述」,世界經濟與政治(北京),2006年第7期,頁38-39。
李寶仁,「鐵路在地緣政治和周邊外交中地位和作用的思考」,鐵道經濟研究(北京),2008年第3期 (2008年),頁9-11。
沈志華,「中蘇同盟破裂的原因和結果」,中共黨史研究(北京),第2期(2007年),頁37。
沈志華,「砲擊金門幕後解秘:毛澤東玩弄中蘇同盟種下分裂惡果」,文史參考(北京),第9期(2010年),頁54-58。
沈志華,「赫魯曉夫、毛澤東與中蘇未實現的軍事合作──關於遠東防空協定、長波電台及聯合艦隊問題的再討論」,中共黨史研究(北京),第5期(2002年),頁32-43。
邢義田,「從古代天下觀看秦漢長城的象徵意義」,燕京學報(北京),新13期(2002年11月),頁15-64。
林文隆,「21世紀的美國海權佈局─『千艦海軍』」,國防雜誌,第23卷第2期(2008年6月),頁41-54。new window
林澐,「中國北方長城地帶游牧文化帶的形成過程」,燕京學報(北京),新14期(2003年5月),頁95-146。
邵永靈、時殷弘,「近代歐洲陸海複合國家的命運與當代中國的選擇」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第10期(2000年),頁47-52。
門洪華,「中國戰略文化的重構:一項研究議程」,教學與研究(北京),第1期(2006年),頁59-60。
查道炯,「從國際關係角度看中國的能源安全」,國際經濟評論(北京),第6期(2005年),頁32。
研討會論文
胡錦濤,「堅定不移走中國特色社會主義文化發展道路,努力建設社會主義文化強國」,求是(北京),第1期(2012年),頁3-7。
韋占彬,「明代“九邊”設置時間辨析」,石家莊師範專科學校學報(河北),第4卷第3期(2002年9月),頁44-47。
修斌、姜秉國,「中國“和平發展”戰略視野下的海洋權益維護」,中國海洋大學學報(社會科學版)(山東),2007年第1期,頁2-4。
倪樂雄,「從陸權到海權的歷史必然-兼與葉自成教授商榷」,世界經濟與政治(北京),2007年第11期,2007年11月,頁22-32。
唐世平,「再論中國的大戰略」,戰略與管理(北京),第4期(2001年),頁29-37。
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秦亞青,「國家身份、戰略文化和安全利益──關於中國與國際社會關係的三個假設」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第1期(2003年),頁10-15、77。
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陳偉華,「戰略研究的批判與反思:典範的困境」,東吳政治學報,第24卷第4期(2009年12月),頁7-21。new window
陳嘉生,「習近平訪美的幾項戰略意涵」,戰略安全研析,第82期(2012年2月),頁8-9。new window
陳鴻瑜,「2005年東亞峰會評析」,展望與探索,第4卷第1期(2006年1月),頁6。
陳鴻瑜,「明代鄭和下西洋的先行者:尹慶」,歷史月刊,第22期(2006年6月),頁98-100。
陳鴻瑜,「明朝與馬六甲王朝之關係:戰略前沿的建立和喪失」,漢學研究,第28卷第4期(2010年12月),頁139-169。new window
陳鴻瑜,「美國、中國和東協三方在南海之角力戰」,遠景基金會季刊,第12卷第1期(2011年1月),頁53-56、56-57。new window
期刊譯作
湯代佳,「青海厄魯特蒙古與清朝之早期關係述略」,青海民族研究(青海),第12卷第3期(2001年7月),頁59-60。
程廣中,「地緣戰略規律試論」,軍事歷史研究(上海),第1期(2001年),頁168-169。
程龍,「兀良哈三衛南遷氣候寒冷說質疑」,中國史研究(北京),第1期(2001年),頁123-132。
黃范章,「東亞地區經濟的形勢及格局」,世界經濟(北京),第8期(1993年),頁10、12。
黃范章、李大偉,「東亞經濟一體化進程、發展趨勢及中國的戰略思考──兼論日本地震對東亞經濟的影響」,金融發展評論(北京),第11期(2011年),頁73-74。
黃恩浩、王俊評,「中國海權擴張對亞太區域權力平衡之衝擊」,發表於國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所「101“亞太區域研究”」學術研討會(高雄:國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所,2012年3月9-10日),頁16-21。
楊仕樂,「中國獨特的戰略文化?尋找理念的物質基礎」,東亞研究,第37卷第1期(2006年1月),頁198-230。new window
楊勇,「發揮陸海兼備優勢是大型海陸複合國家的必然選擇」,黑龍江社會科學(黑龍江),總第84期(2004年6月),頁26-29。
楊軍,「朝鮮半島與“遼東”內涵的關係」,遼寧師範大學學報(社會科學版)(遼寧),第27卷第2期(2004年3月),頁111-112。
楚樹龍,「冷戰後中國安全戰略思想的發展」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第9期(1999年),頁11-12、15。
楚樹龍,「冷戰後中國的對外安全戰略」,現代國際關係(北京),第8期(1998年),頁24-25。
萬明,「明代外交觀念的演進──明太祖詔令文書所見之天下國家觀」,古代文明(吉林),第4卷第2期(2010年4月),頁71-79。
葉自成、慕新海,「對中國海權發展戰略的幾點思考」,國際政治研究(北京),第3期(2005年),頁5-17。
葉青,「從戰爭與革命到和諧世界──略論中國共產黨的時代觀發展與中國外交」,國際展望(上海),第4期(2011年),頁1-18。
廖文中,「中共躍向遠洋海軍戰略」,中共研究,第28卷第12期(1994年12月),頁52。
趙現海,「洪武初年甘肅地緣政治與明朝西北疆界政策──由馮勝“棄地”事件引發的思考」,古代文明(吉林),第5卷第1期(2011年1月),頁77-90、113-114。
趙現海,「洪武初年明、北元、高麗的地緣政治格局」,古代文明(吉林),第4卷第1期(2010年1月),頁90-97。
趙景芳,「戰略文化的再思考」,世界經濟與政治(北京),第1期(2008年),頁16、18-20。
齊木德道爾吉,「1640年以後的清朝喀爾喀關係」,內蒙古大學學報(人文社會科學版)(內蒙古),第4期(1998年),頁12-20。
劉一建,「中國未來的海軍建設與海軍戰略」,戰略與管理(北京),第5期(1999年),頁97。
劉一建、呂賢臣,「試論海權的歷史發展規律」,中國海洋大學學報(社會科學版)(山東),第2期(2007年),頁2-3。
劉大清,「加快瀾滄江-湄公河國際航運開發、利用的思考」,綜合運輸(北京),第10期(1996年),頁13。
劉中民、王曉娟,「澄清中國海權發展戰略的三大思想分歧」,學習月刊(湖北),第9期(2005年),頁32-33、50。
劉新華,「海權優先:當代中國的地緣戰略選擇」,社會科學(上海),第7期(2008年),頁58-61。
劉新華,「試論中國發展海權的戰略」,復旦學報(社會科學版)(上海),第6期(2001年),頁68。
劉德海,「變遷中的南韓中國政策」,臺灣國際研究季刊,第5卷第2期(2009年夏季號),頁1-35。new window
劉蕭翔,「俄屬遠東『黃禍論』之論析:迷思或事實」,問題與研究,第48卷第2期(2009年6月),頁109、122-135。new window
蔣士良,「初論制交通權」,中國軍事科學(北京),2001年第06期,頁54。
蔡增家,「從新保守主義論述變遷中的日本防衛政策」,遠景基金會季刊,第8卷第3期(2007年7月),頁91-125。new window
鄭大誠,「歐盟快速反應部隊:發展與展望」,全球防衛雜誌,第276期(2007年8月),頁65-67。
鄧沛,「明代“九邊”考述」,綿陽師範高等專科學校學報(四川),第18卷第4期(1999年8月),頁57-59。
鄭雪飛,「近代大國崛起與海上安全環境辯證關係的歷史啟示」,史學月刊(河南),2008年第12期,頁128-130。
鄭雷,「論中國對專屬經濟區內他國軍事活動的法律立場──以“無暇號”事件為視角」,法學家(北京市),第1期(2011年),頁137-146。
鄭端耀,「國際關係新古典現實主義理論」,問題與研究,第44卷第1期(2005年1、2月),頁125-126、127-128。new window
鄭端耀,「搶救權力平衡理論」,發表於國際關係理論學術研討會(台北:國立臺灣大學政治學系與中華民國國際關係學會主辦,2010年5月21-22日),頁8-9。new window
穆崟臣,「試論清朝治理東蒙古的政策和措施」,內蒙古社會科學(漢文版)(內蒙古),第26卷第3期(2005年5月),頁50。
薛正昌,「蕭關道與固原歷代政權建置及其發展」,西北民族學院學報(哲學社會科學版)(甘肅省蘭州市),第1期(1994年),頁64-71。
鞠海龍,「論地緣政治的”對抗性”思維」,世界經濟與政治論壇(江蘇省南京市),第5期(2009年),頁58-60。
顧頡剛,「讀周官‧職方」,禹貢(北平),第7卷第6-7合期,頁331。
未出版學位論文
沈明室,「中共積極防禦戰略:根源、演變與傳統」,政治作戰學校政治研究所博士論文(2005年)。
彭慕仁,「中共『懲越戰爭』的決策」,政治大學東亞研究所碩士論文(1986年)。
湯佩津,「北宋的南邊政策:以交趾為中心」,中正大學歷史研究所博士論文(2004年)。new window
黑龍,「噶爾丹統治時期的準噶爾與清朝關係研究」,內蒙古大學歷史系博士論文(2005年)。
楊仕樂,「跳脫國際政治的攻勢及守勢現實主義:體系穩定的互動與結構解釋之嘗試」,政治大學外交研究所博士論文(2007年)。new window
報紙
馬世琨、鄭圓圓,「多極化進程加快,中國外交成果豐碩-錢其琛副總理兼外長接受本報年終專訪」,人民日報,1997年12月18日,第7版。
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研討會論文
Yang, Shih-yueh & William C. Vocke Jr., “Chinese Aircraft Carrier Development: A Technical and Geostrategic Analysis,” presented for 2011 Annual Conference on China Studies (Taipei: Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University, October 1, 2011).
政府出版品
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