本文摘要 本研究以定群追蹤樣本分析跨2004到2008年立委選舉時台灣選民政黨認同的穩定與變遷，研究結果有幾點值得注意的發現：首先，選民過去的政黨認同，以及短期的對政黨或政治菁英表現的評價、議題立場，對於選民現在的政黨認同都產生影響，顯示選民的政黨認同，同時受到穩定與變遷的兩個趨力的影響。其次，過去的政黨認同對現在政黨認同的影響，因不同的世代而有異，對第一世代的影響最大，對第三世代的影響最小，顯示第一世代政黨認同最為穩定，第二世代次之，而第三世代最不穩定。第三，選民的政黨認同基本上還算穩定，有大約61.3%的人維持其政黨認同，而在政黨認同不穩定的選民當中，小黨偏好者較可能往大黨變動，且此一變動是沿著藍綠的界線，也因此，本研究推論在台灣的政黨政治體系裡，以省籍、族群與統獨為基礎的藍綠（或說國民黨與民進黨）可能是大多數選民長期穩定的認同對象，這極可能是受到來自於個人在成長經驗當中的政治社會化影響，而這一個政黨認同的架構，極可能被新選舉制度進一步增強。那麼，在選制不再進一步修正，且沒有新議題成為顯著的政治分歧的狀況下，台灣選民的政黨認同狀況有利於兩黨政治的形成。

Abstract This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals’ present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.